511 Happy Creek Rd · Front Royal, VA 22630

$309,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1948 6,098 sqft lot Est $380k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Warm and friendly home , you can walk to church and store off street parking with carport, nice level yard, wakeout level basement, excellent neighborhood, a little work will make this home a real charmer. Priced to sell in "AS IS condition.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1948

Tags

• SUMP PUMP INSTALLATION
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 space); Paved driveway; On-street parking; Total of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Asbestos shingle roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Not in a federal flood zone; Above- and below-grade finished areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with oil backup; Electric heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Dining area; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in the basement; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($177/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leslie Fox Keyser Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 496 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $309k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,400 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $380,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Belair Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+1%)	5mo	$385,000	$233	84
512 Washington Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,536 (-6%)	2mo	$360,000	$234	81
605 Happy Creek Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+10%)	5mo	$367,500	$206	75
414 E 6th St	0.25mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,638 (+0%)	8mo	$340,000	$208	70
317 Polk Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-10%)	6mo	$305,000	$209	66
213 W 1st St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+1%)	1mo	$413,000	$250	62
4 Evelyn Ct	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,417 (-13%)	3mo	$375,000	$265	61
422 Randolph Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+15%)	8mo	$319,000	$170	60
208 Church St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (0%)	7mo	$245,000	$150	59
518 Warren Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-12%)	2mo	$335,000	$234	56
114 S Charles	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+7%)	2mo	$375,000	$216	47
Lot 18 Stonewall Jackson Hwy	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+13%)	1mo	$1,400,100	$761	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-36,489
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $27,040
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,718/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,395

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $102	+0% $15	+5% $-73	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-81	+0% $15	+5% $110	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $93	base $15	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Frazer Pl Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	45d	1	0.69mi
436 Acton St Front Royal, VA	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,850	$1.54	18d	1	0.91mi
291 Acton St Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,500	$1.60	0d	1	0.92mi
350 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	45d	1	1.03mi
352 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	45d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $309,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    status $320,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $320,000 Active
15. 2025-04-16
    historical $2,000
16. 2025-03-17
    listed $2,000
17. 2005-04-22
    soldstatus $189,900 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Warm and friendly home , you can walk to church and store off street parking with carport, nice level yard, wakeout level basement, excellent neighborhood, a little work will make this home a real charmer. Priced to sell in "AS IS condition.

18. 2005-03-14
    historical 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Warm and friendly home , you can walk to church and store off street parking with carport, nice level yard, wakeout level basement, excellent neighborhood, a little work will make this home a real charmer. Priced to sell in "AS IS condition.

19. 2005-02-17
    listed $189,900 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Warm and friendly home , you can walk to church and store off street parking with carport, nice level yard, wakeout level basement, excellent neighborhood, a little work will make this home a real charmer. Priced to sell in "AS IS condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,718 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,534 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,718
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$5,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,255
• After-tax cash flow: $1,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Front Royal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #5050

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Front Royal, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• City population: 35,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+68.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $320,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-16 Rental Removed $2,000 BRIGHTMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed for Rent $2,000 BRIGHTMLS
• 2005-04-22 Sold (MLS) $189,900 MRIS
• 2005-03-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-02-17 Listed $189,900 MRIS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,718 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.