2809 Hogg St · West Orange, TX 77630

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1957 $64/sqft · 31% below area Est $145k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath property that’s perfect for a first-time home buyer or an investor looking for a solid opportunity. This cozy home offers a spacious living area with warm wood accents and a wood-burning stove that adds character and comfort. The inviting covered front porch is ideal for relaxing outdoors, while the fenced yard provides space for pets, gardening, or play. Enjoy established landscaping, plenty of natural light, and a layout that feels open and welcoming. With great potential and classic charm, this home is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fenced yard
• Wood accents

Tags

• WOOD ACCENTS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPING
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,075 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.00%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,673
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -30.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2911 Kelly St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (-11%)	18mo	$149,900	$108	54
3012 Hogg St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,804 (+15%)	13mo	$89,999	$50	50
1907 Irving St	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,728 (+10%)	18mo	$179,900	$104	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $22,510
• Equity at exit: $34,190

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $77,195
• Equity at exit: $45,475

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,520/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,066

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2810 Gandy St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,700	$1.05	44d	1	0.60mi
1543 Alamo St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,200	$1.03	14d	1	0.95mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	14d	1	1.11mi
305 Rhode Island St Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,575	$1.10	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $100,000 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $100,000 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath property that’s perfect for a first-time home buyer or an investor looking for a solid opportunity. This cozy home offers a spacious living area with warm wood accents and a wood-burning stove that adds character and comfort. The inviting covered front porch is ideal for relaxing outdoors, while the fenced yard provides space for pets, gardening, or play. Enjoy established landscaping, plenty of natural light, and a layout that feels open and welcoming. With great potential and classic charm, this home is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,520
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$418
• After-tax cash flow: $2,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Orange

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1075
• US rank: #19069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $100,000 BBOR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $100,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,520 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.