538 59th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14304

$129,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1973 4,703 sqft lot $105/sqft · 32% below area Est $191k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor’s Dream Opportunity! Opportunity awaits in this home with plenty of potential for the right buyer. Tax records reflect a 4-bedroom home, though it is currently configured as a 3-bedroom—offering flexibility for future layout changes and added value. This home will require significant renovation throughout and is best suited for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to take on a full project. With a decent amount of square footage and a desirable location, the upside is there for those willing to put in the work. Bring your vision, your contractor, and your plans—this is a true value-add opportunity with strong potential.

Key facts

• 4,703 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 21 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.72%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,955
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -32.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 59th St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,226 (+0%)	1mo	$175,531	$143	69
6428 John Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-4%)	0mo	$215,000	$184	65
169 61st St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (+5%)	6mo	$205,999	$160	57
247 68th St	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,206 (-2%)	7mo	$165,000	$137	57
209 59th St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,115 (-9%)	8mo	$185,000	$166	56
201 58th St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+3%)	18mo	$120,000	$95	54
615 69th St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,134 (-7%)	2mo	$260,000	$229	51
160 58th St	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,368 (+12%)	16mo	$185,000	$135	46
664 69th St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-11%)	7mo	$171,000	$157	43
454 70th St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (+5%)	11mo	$212,000	$165	42
184 58th St	0.41mi	4/1.5	1,404 (+15%)	19mo	$180,000	$128	38
652 71st St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,356 (+11%)	20mo	$180,000	$133	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $13,059
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $55,067
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14304

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $570	+0% $533	+5% $497	+10% $460
Rent	-10% $397	-5% $465	+0% $533	+5% $602	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $566	base $533	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	15d	1	1.12mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	2d	1	1.23mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $129,000 Active 654-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 43.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $5,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,208
• Household income: $66,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 698.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.77%
• Current HPI: 280.3295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,170 · -20.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.