538 59th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14304

$99,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition 4,703 sqft lot $82/sqft · 48% below area Est $193k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor’s Dream Opportunity! Opportunity awaits in this home with plenty of potential for the right buyer. Tax records reflect a 4-bedroom home, though it is currently configured as a 3-bedroom—offering flexibility for future layout changes and added value. This home will require significant renovation throughout and is best suited for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to take on a full project. With a decent amount of square footage and a desirable location, the upside is there for those willing to put in the work. Bring your vision, your contractor, and your plans—this is a true value-add opportunity with strong potential.

Key facts

• 4,703 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 8.1% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cataract Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,992 of 2,108 statewide, top 95%, 531 students, 76% FRL); Lasalle Preparatory School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 500 students, 65% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Niagara Falls City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.88%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,764
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -35.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 59th St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,226 (+0%)	2mo	$175,531	$143	68
6428 John Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-4%)	2mo	$215,000	$184	64
169 61st St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (+5%)	7mo	$205,999	$160	56
247 68th St	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,206 (-2%)	8mo	$165,000	$137	56
209 59th St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,115 (-9%)	9mo	$185,000	$166	55
201 58th St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+3%)	20mo	$120,000	$95	52
615 69th St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,134 (-7%)	3mo	$260,000	$229	50
160 58th St	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,368 (+12%)	17mo	$185,000	$135	45
664 69th St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-11%)	9mo	$171,000	$157	42
454 70th St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (+5%)	13mo	$212,000	$165	40
184 58th St	0.41mi	4/1.5	1,404 (+15%)	21mo	$180,000	$128	37
652 71st St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,356 (+11%)	22mo	$180,000	$133	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $22,236
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $68,860
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $159,900 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 7 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 14304

• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $631	+0% $603	+5% $575	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $540	+0% $603	+5% $666	+10% $730
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $629	base $603	+0.5pp $577	+1.0pp $551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 59th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1035	$1,400	$1.35	11d	1	0.04mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	63d	1	1.12mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	15d	1	1.23mi
3534 Ferry Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,300	$1.00	15d	1	1.31mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	38d	1	1.38mi
3023 Livingston Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	41d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $99,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $99,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $124,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $124,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $124,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $124,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $124,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $124,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $124,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $124,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $124,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $124,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $124,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $124,000 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $124,000 Active 42 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $124,000 Active 41 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $129,000 Active 40 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $129,000 Active 39 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $129,000 Active 38 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $129,000 Active 36 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $129,000 Active 35 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 31 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 29 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $129,000 Active 24 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
37. 2026-05-05
    listed $129,000 Active 654-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$259/yr (+$22/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $5,984
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $5,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $30,600–$55,080 screening

This home requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including new siding, roof, and electrical panel. Upgrading these areas will significantly increase its value for resale and rental.

Deferred maintenance Est. $20,000–$60,000 screening

• Major Electrical panel (electrical) — Exposed wiring and outdated panel
• Major Exterior siding (exterior) — Signs of wear and potential rot

Repairs flagged

• Major Siding — The siding is worn and peeling, indicating significant damage.
• Major Roof — The roof appears aged and may have leaks or damage.
• Major Electrical panel — The panel is outdated and in need of replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New siding and roof — New siding and roof will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Electrical panel replacement — Upgrading the electrical panel will improve the home's safety and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms will modernize the home and make it more appealing to a wider range of buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cataract Elementary School F NY #1,992/2,108 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Lasalle Preparatory School F NY #550/729 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Niagara Falls High School A NY #409/1,100 Nat'l #817/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 204,149 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,208
• Household income: $66,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.77%
• Current HPI: 280.3295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,170 · -20.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.