73 Las Casitas Ct · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 285 Days on market

Built 2025 ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover true Florida living in the 2-bedroom, 2-bath Carlton model featuring a spacious layout, soaring vaulted ceilings, a covered front porch, and attached garage. Built with solid concrete block, this home boasts quartz counters, stainless steel appliances, and elegant finishes. The split-bedroom design ensures privacy while the open living area flows perfectly for entertaining. This move-in-ready home was built with 3/16th true plywood roof sheathing, hurricane tie straps, R-30 insulation, and hip roof designs ensuring big insurance premium discounts. Our homes also come equipped with energy efficient appliances, keypad door locks, a continuous quartz kitchen backsplash, plus durable a

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Keypad door locks
• Open living area

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• KEYPAD DOOR LOCKS
• QUARTZ KITCHEN BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, fitness center, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball courts, bocce ball, putting green, golf course, billiard and game rooms, library, workshop area, manager on site, shuffleboard courts and dog park; Association maintains grounds, common areas, trash service and golf

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1 covered garage space; 2 open parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Sewer and water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; Single-story; Entry-level living area; Faces east (direction)
• Construction: Concrete, stucco, CBS construction; Metal roof; Built by Wynne Building Corporation (Carlton model)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Open porch; Patio; Porch; Corner lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet located inside

🏗️ New construction. The $259,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,754.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,653 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,754
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Montoya	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,446 (0%)	5mo	$289,000	$200	90
16 Danzar	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,439 (-0%)	4mo	$165,000	$115	85
21 Lavilla Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,446 (0%)	7mo	$269,000	$186	85
2385 6th Ave SW	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-0%)	4mo	$286,000	$199	60
3 Quito	0.36mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (-10%)	2mo	$249,000	$191	58
7205 Brookline Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,477 (+2%)	2mo	$329,990	$223	55
7205 Lakeland Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (-5%)	1mo	$315,000	$229	53
11 Villa Del Norte	0.43mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (-10%)	7mo	$249,000	$191	51
2445 8th Ave SW	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,313 (-9%)	6mo	$165,000	$126	46
6806 Pensacola Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (-14%)	5mo	$305,000	$245	45
751 Highland Dr SW	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,278 (-12%)	2mo	$222,000	$174	41
980 24th Pl SW	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (-15%)	4mo	$350,000	$284	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-59,208
• Equity at exit: $42,905

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-67,660
• Equity at exit: $24,880

Cash invested: $80,571 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,509
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,316/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,517

Max offer price $259,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-99	+0% $-198	+5% $-297	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-377	-5% $-288	+0% $-198	+5% $-109	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-125	base $-198	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,938
• Closing costs: $8,633
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2450 8th Ave SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,100	$1.51	22d	1	0.59mi
6906 Ocala Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,955	$1.66	15d	1	0.69mi
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,950	$1.42	25d	1	0.74mi
985 23rd Pl SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	22d	1	0.80mi
2320 Water Oaks Ln Unit 111 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$3,500	$1.93	22d	1	0.84mi
7500 Pensacola Rd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,150	$1.91	15d	1	0.88mi
7503 Paso Robles Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	25d	1	0.89mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	23d	1	1.04mi
5510 Shannon Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,350	$1.47	15d	1	1.17mi
7704 Pacific Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	15d	1	1.31mi
3766 Harborside Ave Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,160	$1.65	15d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 266 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 265 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 264 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,000 Active 263 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    historical
19. 2026-02-04
    price $259,000
20. 2025-12-18
    price $259,000
21. 2025-12-04
    price $269,000
22. 2025-11-24
    price $269,000
23. 2025-09-09
    listed $279,000 Active
24. 2025-06-08
    listed $279,000 Active
25. 2025-05-13
    listed $279,000 Active
26. 2025-05-12
    historical
27. 2025-02-07
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,316
• − Insurance: −$1,439
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − Depreciation: −$8,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,776
• After-tax cash flow: $-601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $259,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $259,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $269,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $269,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $279,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-08 Listed $279,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $279,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-12 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $279,000 Beaches MLS