612 N Cascade Dr #48 · Woodburn, OR 97071

$56,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1982 $83/sqft · 36% above area Est $41k · 36% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable space rent make this a great opportunity in a quiet 55+ community offering easy, low-maintenance living. Private, beautifully maintained home with an open layout, updated vinyl windows, fresh interior paint, vinyl and new carpet flooring, and warm pine trim throughout. Recent upgrades include A/C, heat exchanger, and quick recovery water heater. Enjoy a covered deck and fully fenced backyard. Carport plus powered garage provide excellent parking and storage. Move-in ready in a peaceful setting.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Recent upgrades
• New carpet flooring

Tags

• UPDATED VINYL WINDOWS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• VINYL FLOORING
• NEW CARPET FLOORING
• WARM PINE TRIM
• RECENT UPGRADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.2% vs local median 3.1% in Woodburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#91 in OR, #4,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, commute D.
• Woodburn SD 103 (town): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #169 of 183 in OR (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $50,960 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.44%
• DSCR: 4.00
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,244
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: 35.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $46,982
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.20×
• Total profit: $112,887
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97071

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $920	-5% $901	+0% $881	+5% $862	+10% $843
Rent	-10% $754	-5% $818	+0% $881	+5% $945	+10% $1,008
Rate	-1.0pp $909	-0.5pp $896	base $881	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
770 Evergreen Rd Unit 06 Woodburn, OR	1.0	1.0	720	$1,250	$1.74	24d	1	0.34mi
300 S Evergreen Rd Woodburn, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$1,770	$2.29	13d	1	0.55mi
477 Broadway St Unit 1 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	684	$1,495	$2.19	44d	1	0.88mi
2100 Arney Ln Woodburn, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,999	$2.25	3d	13	0.94mi
398 Stacy Allison Way Woodburn, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,087	$2.07	3d	108	1.00mi
1458 E Cleveland St Woodburn, OR	1.0	1.0	608	$1,295	$2.13	24d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $56,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $56,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $56,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $56,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $59,900 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Affordable space rent make this a great opportunity in a quiet 55+ community offering easy, low-maintenance living. Private, beautifully maintained home with an open layout, updated vinyl windows, fresh interior paint, vinyl and new carpet flooring, and warm pine trim throughout. Recent upgrades include A/C, heat exchanger, and quick recovery water heater. Enjoy a covered deck and fully fenced backyard. Carport plus powered garage provide excellent parking and storage. Move-in ready in a peaceful setting.

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $64,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Affordable space rent make this a great opportunity in a quiet 55+ community offering easy, low-maintenance living. Private, beautifully maintained home with an open layout, updated vinyl windows, fresh interior paint, vinyl and new carpet flooring, and warm pine trim throughout. Recent upgrades include A/C, heat exchanger, and quick recovery water heater. Enjoy a covered deck and fully fenced backyard. Carport plus powered garage provide excellent parking and storage. Move-in ready in a peaceful setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $10,297
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $8,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodburn SD 103
• NCES district ID: 4113530
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,033
• Composite: 24.9/100
• National rank: #12993
• State rank: #169 of 183 in OR

Livability — Woodburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #4490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodburn, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 33,123
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 33,123
• Household income: $70,938
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 34% Two or more races 22% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 53% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -353.43%
• Current HPI: 297.3113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $59,900 WVMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $64,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

-19.5%/yr

Latest (2010): $88 · -19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.