10427 Lucaya Dr · Tampa, FL 33647

$405,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2003 7,852 sqft lot $138/sqft · 19% below area Est $497k · 19% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 4/3.5/2 home in the sought after Heritage Isles Golf & Country Club Community, where you will find the only driving range in the New Tampa Area. This gorgeous home opens to spacious formal living area! Walk through to an open island kitchen/family room area overviewing the beautiful backyard and pond. Spacious Master Bedroom featuring 2 large walk-in closets. .. The Master Bathroom has a Garden Bath with separate shower stall and dual vanity. Screened in porch/patio, stamped concrete and a cozy firepit for the November/December fall nights. The house has a newer roof (2019), need interior paint and someone with a great vision to make it their own! Want to be in the NEW TAMPA area??? Hurry up, call to schedule your showing today. ..

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Granite counters
• Closet pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• HANDSOME MAPLE WOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• CLOSET PANTRY
• EAT UP BAR HEIGHT SEATING
• SCREENED PAVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Heritage Isles Golf & Community/Condominium Association; HOA required with annual fee (approximately $100 annually; $8.33 monthly equivalent); Association approval required; Pets allowed; CDD present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces, approximately 20x20); Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories; Faces southwest; Located in a planned development (PD-A)
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported (living area and total building area available)
• Exterior features: Patio (screened); Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Vinyl fencing; Trees and landscaped yard; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-598 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary School (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 489 students, 46% FRL); Benito Middle School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #140 of 571 statewide, top 25%, 1,017 students, 47% FRL); Wharton High School (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,289 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,383 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $497,231
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: -18.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-112,759
• Equity at exit: $60,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-182,161
• Equity at exit: $35,017

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33647

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 493
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$801 /mo · $9,607/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $-598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,926

Max offer price $299,383

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-483	+0% $-598	+5% $-713	+10% $-827
Rent	-10% $-848	-5% $-723	+0% $-598	+5% $-473	+10% $-348
Rate	-1.0pp $-394	-0.5pp $-495	base $-598	+0.5pp $-703	+1.0pp $-810

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19305 Yellow Clover Dr Tampa, FL	5.0	4.0	3500	$3,700	$1.06	26d	1	0.61mi
20010 Date Palm Way Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	2416	$2,400	$0.99	4d	1	0.91mi
20010 Date Palm Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	2416	$2,400	$0.99	7d	1	0.91mi
20019 Date Palm Way Tampa, FL	5.0	2.5	2382	$3,125	$1.31	7d	1	0.92mi
20044 Date Palm Way Tampa, FL	5.0	2.5	2820	$2,945	$1.04	26d	1	0.97mi
18111 Pheasant Walk Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2333	$2,950	$1.26	5d	1	0.99mi
18116 Heron Walk Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,450	$1.44	20d	1	1.10mi
10847 Barbados Isle Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	3424	$4,599	$1.34	6d	1	1.11mi
19430 Redwood Point Dr Tampa, FL	5.0	4.0	3316	$3,750	$1.13	20d	1	1.11mi
19347 Paddock View Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2696	$2,895	$1.07	26d	1	1.15mi
20127 Oakflower Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	3171	$3,195	$1.01	26d	1	1.34mi
1029 Millebourne Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2300	$3,000	$1.30	20d	1	1.35mi
18047 Java Isle Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	3.5	2511	$2,975	$1.18	5d	1	1.40mi
18047 Java Isle Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	4.0	2511	$2,995	$1.19	26d	1	1.40mi
18044 Java Isle Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	3.5	2888	$4,495	$1.56	26d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $405,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $405,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $405,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $405,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $422,500 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $422,500 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $422,500 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $422,500 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $422,500 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $422,500 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $422,500 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $422,500 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $422,500 Active 1054-char remark
17. 2025-11-21
    historical
18. 2025-09-22
    price $550,000
19. 2025-07-21
    listed $575,000 Active
20. 2021-12-29
    soldstatus $440,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Lovely 4/3.5/2 home in the sought after Heritage Isles Golf & Country Club Community, where you will find the only driving range in the New Tampa Area. This gorgeous home opens to spacious formal living area! Walk through to an open island kitchen/family room area overviewing the beautiful backyard and pond. Spacious Master Bedroom featuring 2 large walk-in closets. .. The Master Bathroom has a Garden Bath with separate shower stall and dual vanity. Screened in porch/patio, stamped concrete and a cozy firepit for the November/December fall nights. The house has a newer roof (2019), need interior paint and someone with a great vision to make it their own! Want to be in the NEW TAMPA area??? Hurry up, call to schedule your showing today. ..

21. 2021-12-28
    soldstatus $440,000
22. 2021-11-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Lovely 4/3.5/2 home in the sought after Heritage Isles Golf & Country Club Community, where you will find the only driving range in the New Tampa Area. This gorgeous home opens to spacious formal living area! Walk through to an open island kitchen/family room area overviewing the beautiful backyard and pond. Spacious Master Bedroom featuring 2 large walk-in closets. .. The Master Bathroom has a Garden Bath with separate shower stall and dual vanity. Screened in porch/patio, stamped concrete and a cozy firepit for the November/December fall nights. The house has a newer roof (2019), need interior paint and someone with a great vision to make it their own! Want to be in the NEW TAMPA area??? Hurry up, call to schedule your showing today. ..

23. 2021-11-15
    price $465,000

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Lovely 4/3.5/2 home in the sought after Heritage Isles Golf & Country Club Community, where you will find the only driving range in the New Tampa Area. This gorgeous home opens to spacious formal living area! Walk through to an open island kitchen/family room area overviewing the beautiful backyard and pond. Spacious Master Bedroom featuring 2 large walk-in closets. .. The Master Bathroom has a Garden Bath with separate shower stall and dual vanity. Screened in porch/patio, stamped concrete and a cozy firepit for the November/December fall nights. The house has a newer roof (2019), need interior paint and someone with a great vision to make it their own! Want to be in the NEW TAMPA area??? Hurry up, call to schedule your showing today. ..

24. 2021-11-04
    listed $475,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Lovely 4/3.5/2 home in the sought after Heritage Isles Golf & Country Club Community, where you will find the only driving range in the New Tampa Area. This gorgeous home opens to spacious formal living area! Walk through to an open island kitchen/family room area overviewing the beautiful backyard and pond. Spacious Master Bedroom featuring 2 large walk-in closets. .. The Master Bathroom has a Garden Bath with separate shower stall and dual vanity. Screened in porch/patio, stamped concrete and a cozy firepit for the November/December fall nights. The house has a newer roof (2019), need interior paint and someone with a great vision to make it their own! Want to be in the NEW TAMPA area??? Hurry up, call to schedule your showing today. ..

25. 2017-03-27
    historical
26. 2017-03-14
    price $257,900
27. 2016-12-01
    price $259,900
28. 2016-10-27
    listed $279,900 Active
29. 2013-06-10
    soldstatus $212,000
30. 2013-05-30
    soldstatus $212,000
31. 2013-04-08
    listed $219,900
32. 2013-03-12
    soldstatus $165,000
33. 2012-05-01
    listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,607 · $801/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,607 · $801/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$9,607
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,042
• − Management: −$3,042
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$14,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,421
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 74,844
• Household income: $109,285
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2578.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Black 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.77%
• Current HPI: 225.0483
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+138.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $405,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $422,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $550,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $575,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-29 Sold (MLS) $440,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-15 Price Changed $465,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-04 Listed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-14 Price Changed $257,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-01 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-27 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-30 Sold (MLS) $212,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-08 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-12 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-01 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,607 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.