1184 County Road 2298 · Dayton, TX 77327

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2018 2.13 ac lot $120/sqft · 15% below area Est $264k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home with room to roam in a nice quiet subdivision…Spacious 1872 square foot 4 bed 2 bath with 2 living areas manufactured home on 2.12 acres in the heart of Tarkington. Fully fenced with electric gate, 2 pecan trees planted last year and other mature trees, 20 X 10 covered front porch and 10 X 10 back porch where your sure to enjoy watching the wildlife. small outer building and a convex for storage, washer dryer and 2 refrigerators convey with the home.. many many updates since they purchased the property in 2020

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fully fenced
• Electric gate

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• ELECTRIC GATE
• PECAN TREES
• MATURE TREES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($720/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,813 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,790
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -14.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-30,903
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,712
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $124	+0% $60	+5% $-4	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-11	+0% $60	+5% $131	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $117	base $60	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $225,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Under Contract 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Welcome Home with room to roam in a nice quiet subdivision…Spacious 1872 square foot 4 bed 2 bath with 2 living areas manufactured home on 2.12 acres in the heart of Tarkington. Fully fenced with electric gate, 2 pecan trees planted last year and other mature trees, 20 X 10 covered front porch and 10 X 10 back porch where your sure to enjoy watching the wildlife. small outer building and a convex for storage, washer dryer and 2 refrigerators convey with the home.. many many updates since they purchased the property in 2020

15. 2026-04-16
    listed $225,000 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Welcome Home with room to roam in a nice quiet subdivision…Spacious 1872 square foot 4 bed 2 bath with 2 living areas manufactured home on 2.12 acres in the heart of Tarkington. Fully fenced with electric gate, 2 pecan trees planted last year and other mature trees, 20 X 10 covered front porch and 10 X 10 back porch where your sure to enjoy watching the wildlife. small outer building and a convex for storage, washer dryer and 2 refrigerators convey with the home.. many many updates since they purchased the property in 2020

16. 2020-05-26
    soldstatus
17. 2020-05-22
    soldstatus Sold 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    4 Bed 2 Bath manufactured home on 2 acres, quiet subdivision with plenty of room to roam, fence was started but not complete. portable shed on the property, home will need skirting, a few repairs and some dirt, but has the potential to be a beautiful place to call home.

18. 2020-05-04
    status Pending 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    4 Bed 2 Bath manufactured home on 2 acres, quiet subdivision with plenty of room to roam, fence was started but not complete. portable shed on the property, home will need skirting, a few repairs and some dirt, but has the potential to be a beautiful place to call home.

19. 2020-04-22
    status Pending, Continue to Show 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    4 Bed 2 Bath manufactured home on 2 acres, quiet subdivision with plenty of room to roam, fence was started but not complete. portable shed on the property, home will need skirting, a few repairs and some dirt, but has the potential to be a beautiful place to call home.

20. 2020-03-25
    price $132,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    4 Bed 2 Bath manufactured home on 2 acres, quiet subdivision with plenty of room to roam, fence was started but not complete. portable shed on the property, home will need skirting, a few repairs and some dirt, but has the potential to be a beautiful place to call home.

21. 2020-03-06
    listed $135,000 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    4 Bed 2 Bath manufactured home on 2 acres, quiet subdivision with plenty of room to roam, fence was started but not complete. portable shed on the property, home will need skirting, a few repairs and some dirt, but has the potential to be a beautiful place to call home.

22. 2018-12-18
    soldstatus
23. 2011-10-26
    soldstatus
24. 1996-09-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,075/yr (+$256/mo · 295.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$766
• After-tax cash flow: $1,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2020-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-25 Price Changed $132,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-06 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · -66.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.