4399 Aplicella Ct #66 · Manteca, CA 95337

$179,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition Est $220k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own a spacious 1977 Royal Monarch triple wide located in the desirable Oakwood Lake MHP! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers an expansive layout with formal living and dining areas, a cozy fireplace, and a built-in bar area perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features modern white cabinetry, ample counter space, and plenty of storage. The spacious primary suite includes an ensuite bathroom with double sinks and a relaxing sunken tub. Additional highlights include a large laundry room area and generously sized living spaces throughout. Enjoy comfortable living in a well-established community with an affordable space rent of just $1,195 per month. This unique triple w

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Ample counter space
• Built-in bar area

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN BAR AREA
• MODERN WHITE CABINETRY
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Oakwood Lake Mobile Home Community (space #66)
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Electric service: Other; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Triple-wide; Built in 1977; Manufacturer: LAKEWOOD (Royal Monarch)
• Construction: Wood skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Wood skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Range hood; Synthetic countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Sunken tub
• Heating & cooling: Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Interior features: Wet bar; Great room; Formal dining area; Synthetic kitchen counters; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 387 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.46%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,320
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4399 Aplicella Ct #64	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (0%)	17mo	$114,800	$56	78
4399 Aplicella Ct #62	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,304 (+13%)	8mo	$190,000	$82	72
4399 Aplicella Ct #57	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,946 (-5%)	24mo	$211,000	$108	70
4399 Aplicella Ct #20	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-13%)	17mo	$140,000	$79	64
4399 Aplicella Ct #52	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-15%)	17mo	$240,000	$138	58
788 E Willow Ave	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,782 (-13%)	5mo	$550,000	$309	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $45,484
• Equity at exit: $26,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $117,757
• Equity at exit: $15,559

Cash invested: $50,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95337

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,699/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $1,279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,950

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,988
• Closing costs: $5,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1440 Riva Trigoso Dr Manteca, CA	4.0	2.5	2292	$3,200	$1.40	43d	1	0.32mi
3311 W Woodward Ave Manteca, CA	4.0	3.5	2711	$3,385	$1.25	19d	1	1.10mi
3284 Oak Trail Dr Manteca, CA	4.0	3.0	2996	$3,195	$1.07	43d	1	1.14mi
3247 Mesa Oak St Manteca, CA	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	43d	1	1.16mi
3275 Hayduke St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,950	$1.82	3d	1	1.19mi
1912 Medford Ave Manteca, CA	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,945	$1.40	21d	1	1.35mi
3137 Barnowl Way Manteca, CA	4.0	3.0	2463	$2,999	$1.22	14d	1	1.35mi
3129 Ballena St Manteca, CA	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,950	$1.40	3d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $179,950 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,950 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,950 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,950 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,950 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,950 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,950 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,950 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,950 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,950 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,950 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,950 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,950 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,950 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,950 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,950 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,080
• − Property taxes: −$2,699
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,065
• − Management: −$3,065
• − Depreciation: −$5,235
• Taxable income: $13,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,185
• After-tax cash flow: $12,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1977 Royal Monarch triple wide is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It offers a spacious layout with modern amenities and is located in a desirable community. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,731
• Household income: $117,137
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 880.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 29% Two or more races 23% Asian 21% Black 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 11% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -481.88%
• Current HPI: 273.9008
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B