322 Falling Waters Ln #163 · Englewood, FL 34223

$289,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · Condo public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1990 $152/sqft · 19% below area Est $359k · 19% under $381/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home in the 55+ gated community of Park Forest, offering comfortable living and a great location. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings, along with a den/office that provides flexible space for work or guests. The home also features a bright, year-round Florida Room for additional living and relaxation. The kitchen includes updated cabinetry, granite countertops, an island with plenty of storage and a separate dinette area. The primary bedroom offers two walk-in closets and an updated bathroom with a walk-in shower. A split floor plan adds privacy, with a second bedroom and full bath, plus a convenient linen closet. Residents enjoy year-round social activities plus a clubhouse, pool, pickleball and tennis courts, shuffleboard, and bocce ball. The HOA covers lawn care, irrigation, roof replacement, and exterior painting for easy, low-maintenance living. Located just a short drive from the beaches of Manasota Key, Venice, and Nokomis, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy the Florida lifestyle.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Split floor plan
• Florida room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FLORIDA ROOM
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ISLAND WITH STORAGE
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Englewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#321 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Englewood Elementary School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 587 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 726 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $290k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,230 (37.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,536
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -19.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,944
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,795
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34223

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 726
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,031/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$381
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,314

Max offer price $182,230

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-445	-5% $-527	+0% $-609	+5% $-692	+10% $-774
Rent	-10% $-810	-5% $-710	+0% $-609	+5% $-509	+10% $-409
Rate	-1.0pp $-464	-0.5pp $-536	base $-609	+0.5pp $-685	+1.0pp $-761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $381 · $4,572/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $289,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $315,000 Active 1069-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home in the 55+ gated community of Park Forest, offering comfortable living and a great location. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings, along with a den/office that provides flexible space for work or guests. The home also features a bright, year-round Florida Room for additional living and relaxation. The kitchen includes updated cabinetry, granite countertops, an island with plenty of storage and a separate dinette area. The primary bedroom offers two walk-in closets and an updated bathroom with a walk-in shower. A split floor plan adds privacy, with a second bedroom and full bath, plus a convenient linen closet. Residents enjoy year-round social activities plus a clubhouse, pool, pickleball and tennis courts, shuffleboard, and bocce ball. The HOA covers lawn care, irrigation, roof replacement, and exterior painting for easy, low-maintenance living. Located just a short drive from the beaches of Manasota Key, Venice, and Nokomis, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy the Florida lifestyle.

18. 2000-07-10
    soldstatus $117,500
19. 1991-11-11
    soldstatus $102,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,031
• − Insurance: −$6,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − HOA: −$4,572
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$12,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Englewood

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #5655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Englewood, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 35,420
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,884
• Household income: $76,016
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.26%
• Current HPI: 281.0529
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.02%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 1991-11-11 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,031 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.