2 Birchwood Ct Unit 5H · Mineola, NY 11501

$349,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 70 Days on market

Built 1960 $437/sqft · 8% below area Est $381k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2 Birchwood Court #5H, a beautifully updated TOP FLOOR 1 bedroom apartment in Birchwood Court. Enjoy beautiful sunsets and city views of Mineola from your living room. There is an Open Concept Floorplan and Makes it Perfect for Every Day Living or Entertaining. Some highlights of the home include an updated bathroom, gas cooking, hardwood floors, oversized bedroom, tons of closet space including a large walk-in closet. The apartment is Located in a 24-hr Gated Community in Close Proximity to the LIRR, NYU Langone Winthrop Hospital, Roosevelt Fields Mall, Shopping and Restaurants. The apartment even comes with a transferrable parking spot. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own in Birchwood Court.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1960
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-689 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $329k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in NY, #868 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Mineola Union Free School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #113 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $350k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,623
• List price: $349,999
• Delta: -8.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-93,022
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-105,370
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11501

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,556 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,079
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $-689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,428

Max offer price $250,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-447	-5% $-568	+0% $-689	+5% $-810	+10% $-931
Rent	-10% $-970	-5% $-829	+0% $-689	+5% $-548	+10% $-408
Rate	-1.0pp $-513	-0.5pp $-600	base $-689	+0.5pp $-780	+1.0pp $-872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 3rd St Unit 921 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$3,750	$5.36	44d	1	0.02mi
1 3rd St Unit 1033 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$3,900	$5.57	44d	1	0.02mi
78 Roslyn Rd Unit 202 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1050	$2,950	$2.81	5d	1	0.15mi
140 Old Country Rd Mineola, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$3,574	$3.92	2d	13	0.18mi
162 2nd St Unit 4 Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$3,600	$4.80	13d	1	0.24mi
101 Searing Ave Unit 502 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	998	$4,400	$4.41	11d	1	0.28mi
101 Searing Ave Unit 301 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1093	$4,600	$4.21	44d	1	0.28mi
101 Searing Ave Unit 210 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1085	$4,900	$4.52	44d	1	0.28mi
119 Searing Ave Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	946	$4,028	$4.26	2d	13	0.29mi
116 Searing Ave Unit PHN418 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	831	$4,215	$5.07	5d	1	0.31mi
116 Searing Ave Unit N322 Mineola, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,435	$4.03	3d	1	0.31mi
147 Main St Unit 3B Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1100	$3,300	$3.00	44d	1	0.34mi
101 Clinton Ave Unit 1G Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	44d	1	0.36mi
1 3rd Ave Mineola, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$4,550	$3.99	2d	5	0.41mi
160 Garfield Ave Unit 1 Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,450	$3.45	13d	1	0.42mi
203 Willis Ave Apt 3E Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,200	$3.38	44d	1	0.46mi
100 Lincoln Ave Apt 14A Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$2,998	$3.33	25d	1	0.47mi
101 Jackson Ave Unit 2G Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	969	$3,250	$3.35	25d	1	0.50mi
2 Laurel Dr Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	641	$2,848	$4.44	2d	15	0.56mi
269 Willis Ave Unit N Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	13d	1	0.64mi
365 Stewart Ave Garden City, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$3,220	$3.11	2d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gassecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $349,999 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,999 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,999 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,999 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,999 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,999 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,999 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,999 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,999 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,999 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,999 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,999 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $349,999 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Welcome to 2 Birchwood Court #5H, a beautifully updated TOP FLOOR 1 bedroom apartment in Birchwood Court. Enjoy beautiful sunsets and city views of Mineola from your living room. There is an Open Concept Floorplan and Makes it Perfect for Every Day Living or Entertaining. Some highlights of the home include an updated bathroom, gas cooking, hardwood floors, oversized bedroom, tons of closet space including a large walk-in closet. The apartment is Located in a 24-hr Gated Community in Close Proximity to the LIRR, NYU Langone Winthrop Hospital, Roosevelt Fields Mall, Shopping and Restaurants. The apartment even comes with a transferrable parking spot. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own in Birchwood Court.

16. 2026-04-08
    historical $349,999 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Welcome to 2 Birchwood Court #5H, a beautifully updated TOP FLOOR 1 bedroom apartment in Birchwood Court. Enjoy beautiful sunsets and city views of Mineola from your living room. There is an Open Concept Floorplan and Makes it Perfect for Every Day Living or Entertaining. Some highlights of the home include an updated bathroom, gas cooking, hardwood floors, oversized bedroom, tons of closet space including a large walk-in closet. The apartment is Located in a 24-hr Gated Community in Close Proximity to the LIRR, NYU Langone Winthrop Hospital, Roosevelt Fields Mall, Shopping and Restaurants. The apartment even comes with a transferrable parking spot. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own in Birchwood Court.

17. 2013-10-24
    soldstatus $138,000 Closed 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Very Sunny Top Floor Unit, 24/7 Security, Parking Spot, New Laundry Rm, Bike Rm, Playground On Premise, 2 Blocks To Lirr(35 Minutes To Nyc)Close To Restaurants, Winthrop Hospital, Shopping, Etccc

18. 2013-10-24
    soldstatus $138,000

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Very Sunny Top Floor Unit, 24/7 Security, Parking Spot, New Laundry Rm, Bike Rm, Playground On Premise, 2 Blocks To Lirr(35 Minutes To Nyc)Close To Restaurants, Winthrop Hospital, Shopping, Etccc

19. 2013-07-24
    status Under Contract 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Very Sunny Top Floor Unit, 24/7 Security, Parking Spot, New Laundry Rm, Bike Rm, Playground On Premise, 2 Blocks To Lirr(35 Minutes To Nyc)Close To Restaurants, Winthrop Hospital, Shopping, Etccc

20. 2013-07-08
    price $140,000 Price Change 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Very Sunny Top Floor Unit, 24/7 Security, Parking Spot, New Laundry Rm, Bike Rm, Playground On Premise, 2 Blocks To Lirr(35 Minutes To Nyc)Close To Restaurants, Winthrop Hospital, Shopping, Etccc

21. 2013-06-17
    listed $145,000 New 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Very Sunny Top Floor Unit, 24/7 Security, Parking Spot, New Laundry Rm, Bike Rm, Playground On Premise, 2 Blocks To Lirr(35 Minutes To Nyc)Close To Restaurants, Winthrop Hospital, Shopping, Etccc

22. 2013-06-17
    listed $140,000

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Very Sunny Top Floor Unit, 24/7 Security, Parking Spot, New Laundry Rm, Bike Rm, Playground On Premise, 2 Blocks To Lirr(35 Minutes To Nyc)Close To Restaurants, Winthrop Hospital, Shopping, Etccc

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,413
• − Management: −$3,413
• − HOA: −$12,948
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$13,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,335
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineola Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3619500
• Math proficiency: 71% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $84,012
• Composite: 62.64/100
• National rank: #676
• State rank: #113 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mineola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #868

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineola, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 21,641
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,641
• Household income: $137,665
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 489.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 6% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Other Indo-European 12% Spanish 11% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -600.19%
• Current HPI: 327.4674
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $349,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $349,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-24 Sold (MLS) $138,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-24 Sold (MLS) $138,000 MLSLI
• 2013-07-24 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-07-08 Price Changed $140,000 MLSLI
• 2013-06-17 Listed $145,000 MLSLI
• 2013-06-17 Listed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid