341 Brian Cir · Mary Esther, FL 32569

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1988 10,018 sqft lot Est $503k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Sellers are asking for HIGHEST AND BEST by 5/27/2026 at 5:00 pm. * Check out this charming 3 bedroom all brick home in Mary Esther, Florida! You are welcomed into the home through custom designed brick work at the front door and upon entering, you will find a designated office/ flex space to the left and the living room on the right. This spacious home also has a formal dining room that flows from the living room to the kitchen. While this home needs some updating from a new owner, the major systems are updated as follows: the water heater was replaced in 2020, HVAC and gas heater in 2021, and a new roof was installed in 2014. A new owner could easily convert the front office to a bedroo

Key facts

• Updated gas heater
• Formal dining room
• Updated water heater

Tags

• CUSTOM DESIGNED BRICK WORK
• DESIGNATED OFFICE FLEX SPACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• UPDATED WATER HEATER
• UPDATED HVAC
• UPDATED GAS HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Playground in the community; Subdivision: MARY ESTHER MANOR

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; Natural gas; Phone service; Cable TV
• Home design: Traditional single-family home; One story; Built in 1988; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior with wood trim; Composite shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Lawn pump; Sprinkler system; Yard building; Privacy fencing; Curb & gutter; Interior lot; Level lot; Sidewalks; City street frontage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Microwave; Range hood; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on the first floor with cathedral ceiling and walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with double vanity and garden tub
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Tray ceilings; Fireplace; Kitchen island; Washer/dryer hookup; Painted woodwork; Double pane windows; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; Washer/dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.8% in Mary Esther — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#2 in FL, #137 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Florosa Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 536 students, 52% FRL); Fort Walton Beach High School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,620 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,884 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $503,472
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
341 Brian Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,468 (0%)	0mo	$295,000	$120	100
265 Brian Cir	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,372 (-4%)	16mo	$485,000	$204	67
480 Brian Cir	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,595 (+5%)	17mo	$499,000	$192	61
221 ELLIOTT Rd	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,359 (-4%)	13mo	$525,000	$223	58
25 Emory St	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,255 (-9%)	21mo	$360,000	$160	54
211 Elliott Rd	0.33mi	3/3.0	2,366 (-4%)	24mo	$575,000	$243	54
1626 Fenwick Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,149 (-13%)	4mo	$449,000	$209	35
695 Randall Roberts Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (-15%)	9mo	$434,000	$207	31
1600 Trent St	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,100 (-15%)	19mo	$420,000	$200	27
712 Randall Roberts Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,122 (-14%)	19mo	$375,000	$177	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-29,350
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-25,882
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,413/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
470 Brian Cir Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1875	$2,800	$1.49	44d	1	0.13mi
1469 Bentley Cir Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,995	$1.06	21d	1	0.83mi
490 Soundview Ct Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.5	1678	$3,200	$1.91	21d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-25
   listed $279,000 Active
2. 2005-02-16
   soldstatus $337,000
3. 2005-02-10
   soldstatus $337,000
4. 2005-02-10
   soldstatus $337,000
5. 2005-01-03
   listed $349,000
6. 2005-01-03
   listed $349,000
7. 2004-11-23
   historical
8. 2004-08-19
   listed $339,900
9. 2004-08-19
   listed $339,900
10. 2004-08-10
    historical
11. 2004-05-10
    listed $379,000
12. 2004-05-10
    listed $379,000
13. 2002-06-20
    soldstatus $179,000
14. 2002-06-17
    soldstatus $179,900
15. 2002-06-17
    soldstatus $179,900
16. 2002-04-10
    listed $179,900
17. 2002-04-10
    listed $179,900
18. 1997-03-24
    soldstatus $111,000
19. 1990-07-01
    soldstatus $128,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,413 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,413 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,413
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$46
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11
• After-tax cash flow: $4,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mary Esther

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #137

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mary Esther, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 12,063
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+117.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $279,000 ECAR
• 2005-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $337,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-10 Sold (MLS) $337,000 ECAR
• 2005-02-10 Sold (MLS) $337,000 NAMLS
• 2005-01-03 Listed $349,000 ECAR
• 2005-01-03 Listed $349,000 NAMLS
• 2004-11-23 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2004-08-19 Listed $339,900 NAMLS
• 2004-08-19 Listed $339,900 ECAR
• 2004-08-10 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2004-05-10 Listed $379,000 NAMLS
• 2004-05-10 Listed $379,000 ECAR
• 2002-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-17 Sold (MLS) $179,900 ECAR
• 2002-06-17 Sold (MLS) $179,900 NAMLS
• 2002-04-10 Listed $179,900 ECAR
• 2002-04-10 Listed $179,900 NAMLS
• 1997-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2020): $2,413 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.