10115 Morning Meadowlark Trl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$324,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,876 sqft · Land · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. Welcome home to the Stanley Martin Cortez II, a thoughtfully designed two-story residence that blends open living with smart use of space in Oakfield Trails. This inviting floor plan offers flexibility and comfort ideal for modern living. Featuring approximately 1,876 square feet, the Cortez II offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The main level showcases an open-concept layout where the family room flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, perfect for gathering and entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and includes a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while three

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Green spaces
• Large island

Tags

• GREEN SPACES
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• BACK PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATH
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; CDD applies
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Oakfield Trails Homeowners Association; HOA required — $900 annually ($75/month); HOA includes pool and grounds maintenance; Community clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, and trails; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20); Driveway; Garage faces rear
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion June 2026); Two stories; Southwest facing; Attached property
• Construction: Block, stucco and vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Stanley Martin Homes (model: Cortez II A)
• Exterior features: Porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Landscaped with trees; Cleared and paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Great Room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Laundry area inside

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $288,269 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-51,547
• Equity at exit: $48,457

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-65,303
• Equity at exit: $28,099

Cash invested: $90,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,544/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,692

Max offer price $324,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $243	+0% $151	+5% $59	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $37	+0% $151	+5% $264	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $233	base $151	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,248
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	11d	1	0.53mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	4d	1	0.63mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	17d	1	0.69mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	25d	1	0.72mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	25d	1	0.87mi
11884 Little River Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2142	$3,250	$1.52	17d	1	0.87mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	4d	1	0.90mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	4d	1	0.96mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	4d	1	1.11mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	17d	1	1.20mi
11567 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,999	$1.41	4d	1	1.22mi
11230 82nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,495	$1.42	17d	1	1.22mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	1.28mi
11522 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	1.31mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	17d	1	1.31mi
11523 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$1,950	$1.23	4d	1	1.32mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	1.33mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	3d	32	1.34mi
8544 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,300	$1.26	13d	1	1.37mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	4d	1	1.38mi
8522 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	1.38mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	11d	1	1.38mi
8443 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,000	$0.92	25d	1	1.45mi
8423 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,400	$1.32	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,990 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,990 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,990 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,990 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $324,990 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $357,990 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,990 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $357,990
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $374,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,697 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$153/yr (+$13/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,204
• − Property taxes: −$2,544
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,767
• − Management: −$2,767
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,454
• Taxable loss: −$3,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$881
• After-tax cash flow: $2,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $357,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $374,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid