17195 SW 20th CT Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,673 sqft · Land · 54 Days on market

Built 2025 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. The Buyer's financing fell through. .. so we're on the market with this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers thoughtfully planned living space with premium finishes throughout. The spacious open-concept floor plan is enhanced by 9’4” ceilings and luxury tile flooring in every room. The kitchen features 36" real wood cabinetry, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include large walk-in closets, double-pane low-emissivity windows, LED lighting, and a high-performance 16 SEER HVAC system for year-round energy efficiency. The e

Key facts

• Real wood cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Led lighting

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• REAL WOOD CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1; Lot size about 0.31 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: No homeowner association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; New construction; One story; Faces northwest; Entry level: One
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Stone counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marion Oaks Elementary School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 939 students, 65% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $290k implies a 679% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,996 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-59,778
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-84,348
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,173

Max offer price $271,378

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-23	+0% $-105	+5% $-187	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-185	+0% $-105	+5% $-24	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-31	base $-105	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	23d	1	0.31mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	0.32mi
17399 SW 25th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,800	$1.37	23d	1	0.33mi
17490 SW 27th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	15d	1	0.51mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.53mi
16910 SW 27th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,550	$1.37	23d	1	0.59mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	15d	1	0.70mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	15d	1	0.75mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	15d	1	0.85mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	0.87mi
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	15d	1	0.87mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	23d	1	0.95mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.95mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	23d	1	0.96mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	23d	1	0.98mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	1.00mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	1.02mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	15d	1	1.04mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	15d	1	1.04mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	15d	1	1.07mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	1.11mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	23d	1	1.19mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	1.24mi
485 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,525	$1.42	23d	1	1.24mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	15d	1	1.28mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	23d	1	1.34mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	23d	1	1.44mi
3540 SW 163rd Place Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,600	$1.32	23d	1	1.45mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	23d	1	1.45mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	23d	1	1.46mi
357 Marion Oaks Blvd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,695	$1.41	15d	1	1.46mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	15d	1	1.47mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   status $289,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-07
   price $289,900
8. 2026-03-17
   listed $299,900 Active
9. 2005-09-09
   soldstatus $37,200
10. 2005-07-22
    soldstatus $264,000
11. 2004-07-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,502/yr (+$125/mo · 166.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$6,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,551
• After-tax cash flow: $293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4041.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $37,200 Public Records
• 2005-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $264,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $904 · +64.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.