416 Ballman Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$119,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1954 6,250 sqft lot Est $126k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence in the heart of Ferguson. Spanning 1,210 sq. ft. , this well-maintained home features stunning brown hardwood floors and a fresh, neutral paint palette throughout. The functional kitchen is equipped with sleek black appliances, while the separate laundry area offers convenient washer and dryer connections. Exterior highlights include low-maintenance aluminum/vinyl siding, a newer roof, and a fully fenced backyard perfect for privacy and outdoor gatherings. The property also includes a one-car garage and a paved asphalt driveway. Provide peace of mind in this classic 1954 build. Situated on a level 0.14-acre lot near public transit and

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Black appliances
• Newer roof

Tags

• BROWN HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY AREA
• NEWER ROOF
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,210 (source: public records); Lot size approximately 0.1435 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space, total parking for 1 vehicle)
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service: Other
• Home design: Single-family house; One-and-a-half stories; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Built-in foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 125 x 50

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: No washer/dryer or utility room details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (180 students, 98% FRL); Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 304% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.22%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Royal Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-3%)	3mo	$95,000	$81	74
536 Ames Pl	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (+8%)	5mo	$69,900	$54	70
406 Teston Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+9%)	4mo	$89,900	$68	70
818 Robert Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (-6%)	5mo	$120,000	$106	67
206 Thoroughman Ave	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,112 (-8%)	3mo	$180,000	$162	63
127 Thoroughman Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,132 (-6%)	2mo	$219,999	$194	63
509 Royal Ave	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,375 (+14%)	3mo	$110,000	$80	62
716 Nancy Pl	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,334 (+10%)	4mo	$149,000	$112	52
7 Bromley Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-12%)	2mo	$192,500	$182	43
945 Edgehill Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (-8%)	3mo	$114,900	$104	42
1330 Chambers Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,339 (+11%)	3mo	$139,900	$104	41
125 Forestwood Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-15%)	3mo	$77,900	$75	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,881
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $86,003
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,548 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,416/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	0.09mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	43d	1	0.10mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	43d	1	0.14mi
536 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1305	$1,750	$1.34	1d	1	0.15mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	0.20mi
410 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	4.0	2.0	1471	$2,000	$1.36	11d	1	0.26mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	0.32mi
13 N Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,400	$1.23	10d	1	0.39mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	0.68mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	0.72mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	43d	1	0.77mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	23d	1	0.77mi
324 Emmett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	23d	1	0.81mi
338 Saint Louis Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.85mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	14d	1	0.90mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	7d	1	0.94mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	43d	1	1.07mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	1.15mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	1.16mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	43d	1	1.17mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	1.18mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	16d	1	1.22mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	10d	1	1.22mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	1.22mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	12d	1	1.24mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	1.26mi
265 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,350	$1.09	43d	1	1.27mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,500	$1.17	14d	1	1.30mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,425	$1.11	1d	1	1.30mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	43d	1	1.31mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	1.33mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	1.33mi
846 Elsworth Pl Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1352	$1,600	$1.18	4d	1	1.33mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	1.34mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.37mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	1.39mi
801 Thomas Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	43d	1	1.39mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	20d	1	1.40mi
6867 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,580	$1.27	43d	1	1.42mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $119,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,416
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $3,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$811
• After-tax cash flow: $4,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+132.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $29,672 Public Records
• 2016-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,231,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2004-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $53,750 Public Records
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,416 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.