1408 Austin St · Bay City, TX 77414

$111,549

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 578 Days on market

Built 1920 6,499 sqft lot $71/sqft · 25% below area Est $148k · 25% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING 2-BEDROOM! Consider this charming two bedroom two bathroom home as your next investment! This property boasts 1,561 square feet of living space where you can make memories in. It features vinyl plank and ceramic tile flooring throughout the main areas, a large functional kitchen space, and a nice covered front porch setting. Lastly it has a nice backyard where you can host those summer BBQs with your family and friends. It is definitely a good property for first-time homebuyers, or a, maybe even an investor! This home is near to town and is within proximity to plenty of local eateries and shops. You will also have quick and easy access to TX-35! We make it easy to own. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 577 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $771 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 578 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,163 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 578 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,234
• List price: $111,549
• Delta: -24.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 Rugeley St	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,541 (-1%)	1mo	$149,199	$97	76
2707 Avenue I	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-0%)	16mo	$74,000	$47	55
3120 Avenue H	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (-9%)	6mo	$199,500	$141	54
2504 Avenue G	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,525 (-2%)	23mo	$249,500	$164	53
2812 Park Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (-7%)	13mo	$150,000	$103	52
2500 Avenue E	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (+13%)	2mo	$240,000	$137	50
2008 Hillcrest Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,527 (-2%)	22mo	$195,000	$128	41
2009 Sandlewood Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,693 (+8%)	8mo	$129,000	$76	40
2907 Avenue K	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+12%)	12mo	$69,900	$40	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-11,810
• Equity at exit: $16,632

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,304
• Equity at exit: $9,645

Cash invested: $31,234 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$585
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,627/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $111,549

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,887
• Closing costs: $3,346
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	43d	1	0.63mi
1401 Thompson Dr Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,030	$1.12	43d	4	0.71mi
1700 Baywood Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,007	$1.25	43d	57	0.74mi
1901 Palm Village Blvd Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$849	$0.89	43d	1	1.08mi
5001 Avenue F Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$798	$0.74	43d	15	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $111,549 Active 578 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $111,549 Active 577 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $111,549 Active 576 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $111,549 Active 575 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $111,549 Active 574 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $111,549 Active 572 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $111,549 Active 571 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $111,549 Active 568 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $111,549 Active 567 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $111,549 Active 566 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $111,549 Active 565 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $111,549 Active 561 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $111,549 Active 560 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $111,549 Active 559 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $111,549 Active 558 DOM
16. 2024-11-18
    listed $111,549 Active 888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (888 chars)

    CHARMING 2-BEDROOM! Consider this charming two bedroom two bathroom home as your next investment! This property boasts 1,561 square feet of living space where you can make memories in. It features vinyl plank and ceramic tile flooring throughout the main areas, a large functional kitchen space, and a nice covered front porch setting. Lastly it has a nice backyard where you can host those summer BBQs with your family and friends. It is definitely a good property for first-time homebuyers, or a, maybe even an investor! This home is near to town and is within proximity to plenty of local eateries and shops. You will also have quick and easy access to TX-35! We make it easy to own. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2024-11-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (888 chars)

    CHARMING 2-BEDROOM! Consider this charming two bedroom two bathroom home as your next investment! This property boasts 1,561 square feet of living space where you can make memories in. It features vinyl plank and ceramic tile flooring throughout the main areas, a large functional kitchen space, and a nice covered front porch setting. Lastly it has a nice backyard where you can host those summer BBQs with your family and friends. It is definitely a good property for first-time homebuyers, or a, maybe even an investor! This home is near to town and is within proximity to plenty of local eateries and shops. You will also have quick and easy access to TX-35! We make it easy to own. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

18. 2024-09-23
    price $111,549
19. 2024-09-23
    status Active
20. 2024-09-20
    historical
21. 2024-07-22
    price $114,999
22. 2020-09-02
    listed $117,999 Active
23. 2015-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$35/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,248
• − Property taxes: −$1,627
• − Insurance: −$558
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − Depreciation: −$3,245
• Taxable loss: −$701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-18 Listed $111,549 HARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $111,549 HARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-22 Price Changed $114,999 HARMLS
• 2020-09-02 Listed $117,999 HARMLS
• 2015-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,627 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.