971 Driftwood Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2010 5,000 sqft lot $295/sqft · 20% below area Est $435k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home in prime beach access location. Fully furnished, close to shopping, dining, and beach activities. Currently used as a successful short-term vacation rental, offering the perfect opportunity to create lasting memories. Make your appointment today and get ready for a summer full of fishing, birding, shelling.

Key facts

• Beach access
• Fully furnished
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• FULLY FURNISHED
• SHORT-TERM VACATION RENTAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-661 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 770 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,279 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,419
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -19.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
978 Seadrift Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,295 (+9%)	2mo	$360,000	$278	78
2769 E Lazy Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+14%)	10mo	$339,900	$252	66
2917 Tropicana Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-6%)	6mo	$475,000	$426	66
970 Kenyln Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-7%)	9mo	$349,000	$316	65
965 Mary Lynn	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,036 (-13%)	9mo	$379,000	$366	64
984 Crane Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,160 (-2%)	2mo	$314,900	$271	64
2785 Gulfview Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+15%)	4mo	$494,850	$363	63
984 S Stingaree Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+2%)	7mo	$349,000	$287	62
984 26 Stingaree Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (+2%)	7mo	$349,000	$287	62
2577 Holiday Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-7%)	4mo	$499,000	$454	58
3089 Patty	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+8%)	2mo	$359,000	$280	52
985 B Gulf Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+8%)	3mo	$415,000	$322	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-98,358
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-138,054
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,897/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $-661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,871

Max offer price $233,279

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3229 Castle Dr Unit 1353849P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,035	$2.14	5d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $350,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-03-07
    listed $350,000 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home in prime beach access location. Fully furnished, close to shopping, dining, and beach activities. Currently used as a successful short-term vacation rental, offering the perfect opportunity to create lasting memories. Make your appointment today and get ready for a summer full of fishing, birding, shelling.

15. 2025-06-30
    historical
16. 2024-11-13
    price $450,000
17. 2024-09-09
    price $499,999
18. 2024-06-11
    listed $535,000 Active
19. 2022-03-30
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2022-03-04
    status Pending
21. 2022-02-25
    historical
22. 2022-02-25
    status Option Pending
23. 2022-02-24
    listed $455,000 Active
24. 2022-02-24
    listed $455,000 Active
25. 2020-04-14
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2020-04-14
    soldstatus
27. 2020-03-25
    status Pending
28. 2020-03-13
    historical
29. 2020-03-13
    status Option Pending
30. 2020-02-28
    listed $225,000 Active
31. 2020-02-27
    listed $225,000 Active
32. 2019-11-20
    historical
33. 2019-09-16
    price $241,500
34. 2019-08-29
    price $244,500
35. 2019-07-04
    price $249,500
36. 2019-05-24
    listed $255,000 Active
37. 2011-12-30
    historical
38. 2011-11-01
    soldstatus
39. 2011-11-01
    soldstatus
40. 2010-12-30
    listed $206,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,897 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,508/yr (+$126/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,897
• − Insurance: −$9,778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,914
• − Management: −$2,914
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$13,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+69.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $450,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $499,999 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Listed $535,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-25 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2022-02-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Listed $455,000 Galveston MLS
• 2022-02-24 Listed $455,000 HARMLS
• 2020-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-13 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2020-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-28 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2020-02-27 Listed $225,000 Galveston MLS
• 2019-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-09-16 Price Changed $241,500 HARMLS
• 2019-08-29 Price Changed $244,500 HARMLS
• 2019-07-04 Price Changed $249,500 HARMLS
• 2019-05-24 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2011-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-30 Listed $206,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,897 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.