🏗️ New Construction
Hideaway Plan · Florence, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 112°F)
- 5 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 13 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +6.7/30.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.8/5.0
- 1% rule +1.7/10.0
- Schools +1.0/10.0
- DSCR +0.9/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$319,990
Hideaway Plan · Florence, AZ 85132
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily
· 233 Days on market
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The Hideaway is thoughtfully designed for those who enjoy entertaining friends and family. The open gathering room, flow-through kitchen and café create an ideal space for hosting--from a casual night with friends to an elegant holiday dinner. A welcoming secondary bedroom allows ample space for visitors and will impress any overnight guests.
Key facts
- Flow-through kitchen
- Open gathering room
- 2 garage spots
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $319,990 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $372,351.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-602 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (10.9% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (22.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $249k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 860 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$249,475
(22.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.67% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.35%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.93%
- DSCR
- 0.69
- GRM
- 12.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $372,351
- List price
- $319,990
- Delta
- -14.06%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6738 W Willow Way | 0.15mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (+2%) | 0mo | $379,900 | $236 | 89 |
| 6718 W Patriot Way | 0.14mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (+2%) | 4mo | $438,000 | $272 | 86 |
| 6900 W Patriot Way | 0.22mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (+2%) | 2mo | $365,000 | $226 | 84 |
| 6611 W Trenton Ct | 0.26mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,627 (+3%) | 3mo | $340,000 | $209 | 75 |
| 4392 N Julieanne Ct | 0.57mi | 2/2.0 | 1,584 (+0%) | 3mo | $390,000 | $246 | 70 |
| 7391 W Stony Quail Way | 0.58mi | 2/2.0 | 1,620 (+3%) | 1mo | $401,000 | $248 | 67 |
| 4062 N Presidential Dr | 0.66mi | 2/2.0 | 1,594 (+1%) | 3mo | $490,000 | $307 | 64 |
| 6573 W Mockingbird Ct | 0.30mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-12%) | 2mo | $299,900 | $217 | 64 |
| 6606 W Mockingbird Ct | 0.35mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-12%) | 1mo | $275,000 | $199 | 62 |
| 6364 W Meadowlark Way | 0.44mi | 2/2.0 | 1,421 (-10%) | 3mo | $310,000 | $218 | 60 |
| 2845 N Crestwood Ct | 0.69mi | 2/2.0 | 1,481 (-6%) | 3mo | $270,000 | $182 | 56 |
| 3909 N Presidio Dr | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,756 (+11%) | 2mo | $315,000 | $179 | 42 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -30.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.01×
- Total profit
- $-102,934
- Equity at exit
- $55,519
10-year hold
- IRR
- -41.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.49×
- Total profit
- $-155,802
- Equity at exit
- $32,194
Cash invested: $104,258 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 51 active · 19 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.1 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $359,900 ($219/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 146 d
- This list price
- 14% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +7.8% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85132
- Home prices YoY
- -5.2%
- Rents YoY
- 1.3%
- Active inventory
- 860
- Price-to-rent
- 10.7×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,495 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,953
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$465 /mo · $5,585/yr
- Insurance
- −$155
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$524
- Net cashflow
- $-602
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$3,257
Max offer price
$285,185
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-345 | -5% $-474 | +0% $-602 | +5% $-731 | +10% $-860 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-799 | -5% $-701 | +0% $-602 | +5% $-504 | +10% $-405 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-415 | -0.5pp $-508 | base $-602 | +0.5pp $-699 | +1.0pp $-797 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $93,088
- Closing costs
- $11,171
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 23 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $3,000 | $2.17 | 93d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $3,500 | $1.93 | 93d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $3,500 | $1.93 | 93d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $3,000 | $2.17 | 93d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1644 | $2,500 | $1.52 | 73d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 6498 W Victory Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2144 | $2,095 | $0.98 | 54d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 5728 W Autumn Vista Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2133 | $2,400 | $1.13 | 93d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1586 | $3,500 | $2.21 | 93d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1756 | $2,200 | $1.25 | 93d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,600 | $1.08 | 29d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,600 | $1.08 | 26d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5430 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,650 | $1.11 | 38d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 2525 N Riverside Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1933 | $3,200 | $1.66 | 21d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 2528 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2002 | $2,195 | $1.10 | 93d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 6363 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1997 | $2,350 | $1.18 | 93d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 4024 N Cottonwood Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1890 | $2,000 | $1.06 | 2d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 2312 N Hudson Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1251 | $2,400 | $1.92 | 0d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1449 | $1,695 | $1.17 | 93d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1765 | $2,578 | $1.46 | 64d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2041 | $1,700 | $0.83 | 34d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2041 | $1,700 | $0.83 | 48d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1450 | $1,700 | $1.17 | 93d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 2713 N Camden Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1262 | $1,600 | $1.27 | 10d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $319,990 Active 233 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $319,990 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $319,990 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $319,990 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $319,990 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $319,990 Active 225 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $319,990 Active 224 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $319,990 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $319,990 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $319,990 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $319,990 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $319,990 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $319,990 Active 216 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $319,990 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $319,990 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $319,990 Active 212 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $319,990 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $319,990 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $319,990 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $319,990 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $319,990 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $319,990 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $319,990 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $319,990 Active 204 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $319,990 Active 203 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $319,990 Active 201 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $319,990 Active 200 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $319,990 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $319,990 Active 197 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $319,990 Active 196 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $319,990 Active 195 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $319,990 Active 194 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $319,990 Active 193 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $319,990 Active 192 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $319,990 Active 191 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $319,990 Active 190 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $319,990 Active 188 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $319,990 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $319,990 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $319,990 Active 182 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $319,990 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $319,990 Active 180 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $319,990 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $319,990 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $319,990 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $319,990 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $319,990 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $319,990 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $319,990 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $319,990 Active 167 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $29,937
- − Mortgage interest
- −$20,857
- − Property taxes
- −$5,585
- − Insurance
- −$1,862
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,395
- − Management
- −$2,395
- − Depreciation
- −$10,832
- Taxable loss
- −$13,989
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,357
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,871/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
None rehab
This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100
Zoned Schools
High
Florence High School
F
AZ #343/381
Nat'l #16,463/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Florence Unified School District (4437)
- NCES district ID
- 0402920
- Math proficiency
- 16% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $54,426
- Composite
- 18.31/100
- National rank
- #8950
- State rank
- #178 of 249 in AZ
C
Composite livability gradescore 60/100
Livability — Florence
- Score
- 60/100
- State rank
- #187
- US rank
- #19483
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime A+
Employment B-
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings C
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Florence, AZ
- County
- Pinal County · 437,574 people
- City population
- 38,671
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 38,671
- Household income
- $79,000
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2% of renters
Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 437,574 people
- By 2030
- 446,903 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 452,589 · +3.4%
- By 2050
- 444,126 · +1.5%
- By 2075
- 430,300 · -1.7%
- By 2100
- 393,536 · -10.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 23%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pinal
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -12.75%
- Current HPI
- 233.6644
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.27%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2025-12-19 Listed $319,990 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…