Hideaway Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$319,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hideaway is thoughtfully designed for those who enjoy entertaining friends and family. The open gathering room, flow-through kitchen and café create an ideal space for hosting--from a casual night with friends to an elegant holiday dinner. A welcoming secondary bedroom allows ample space for visitors and will impress any overnight guests.

Key facts

• Flow-through kitchen
• Open gathering room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN GATHERING ROOM
• FLOW-THROUGH KITCHEN
• WELCOMING SECONDARY BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $372,926.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-491 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,078 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,926
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -14.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6718 W Patriot Way	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,613 (+2%)	2mo	$438,000	$272	88
6900 W Patriot Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,613 (+2%)	1mo	$365,000	$226	85
6611 W Trenton Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,627 (+3%)	2mo	$340,000	$209	76
4392 N Julieanne Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,584 (+0%)	1mo	$390,000	$246	72
4062 N Presidential Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,594 (+1%)	2mo	$490,000	$307	66
6573 W Mockingbird Ct	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,381 (-12%)	0mo	$299,900	$217	65
7382 W Silver Spring Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,475 (-6%)	3mo	$350,000	$237	64
6466 W Heritage Way	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,381 (-12%)	2mo	$304,000	$220	63
6364 W Meadowlark Way	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,421 (-10%)	2mo	$310,000	$218	62
3937 N Smithsonian Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,650 (+5%)	2mo	$356,500	$216	62
2845 N Crestwood Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,481 (-6%)	1mo	$270,000	$182	57
3909 N Presidio Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+11%)	1mo	$315,000	$179	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-96,181
• Equity at exit: $55,604

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-141,767
• Equity at exit: $32,244

Cash invested: $104,419 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 737
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,956
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$466 /mo · $5,594/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,262

Max offer price $301,879

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-362	+0% $-491	+5% $-620	+10% $-749
Rent	-10% $-700	-5% $-595	+0% $-491	+5% $-387	+10% $-282
Rate	-1.0pp $-303	-0.5pp $-396	base $-491	+0.5pp $-588	+1.0pp $-686

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,231
• Closing costs: $11,188
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	46d	1	0.13mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	46d	1	0.25mi
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	46d	1	0.27mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	46d	1	0.30mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	26d	1	0.43mi
6498 W Victory Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,095	$0.98	7d	1	0.53mi
5728 W Autumn Vista Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2133	$2,400	$1.13	46d	1	0.61mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	46d	1	0.61mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	46d	1	0.70mi
2528 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,195	$1.10	46d	1	0.94mi
6363 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1997	$2,350	$1.18	46d	1	1.05mi
7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,695	$1.17	46d	1	1.15mi
2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,578	$1.46	17d	1	1.22mi
8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2041	$1,700	$0.83	1d	1	1.28mi
7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	46d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $319,990 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,990 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,990 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,990 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,990 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,990 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 164 DOM
17. 2025-12-19
    listed $319,990 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    The Hideaway is thoughtfully designed for those who enjoy entertaining friends and family. The open gathering room, flow-through kitchen and café create an ideal space for hosting--from a casual night with friends to an elegant holiday dinner. A welcoming secondary bedroom allows ample space for visitors and will impress any overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,890
• − Property taxes: −$5,594
• − Insurance: −$1,865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$10,849
• Taxable loss: −$12,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,019
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $319,990 Zillow