🏗️ New Construction
Hideaway Plan · Florence, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 112°F)
- 5 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 13 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +6.1/30.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.8/5.0
- 1% rule +1.4/10.0
- Schools +1.0/10.0
- DSCR +0.5/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$309,990
Hideaway Plan · Florence, AZ 85132
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily
· 279 Days on market
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The Hideaway is thoughtfully designed for those who enjoy entertaining friends and family. The open gathering room, flow-through kitchen and café create an ideal space for hosting--from a casual night with friends to an elegant holiday dinner. A welcoming secondary bedroom allows ample space for visitors and will impress any overnight guests.
Key facts
- Flow-through kitchen
- Open gathering room
- 2 garage spots
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $309,990 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $372,238.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-689 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (12.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (23.1% below list).
- Recommended offer: $238k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$238,456
(23.1% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.64% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.07%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.93%
- DSCR
- 0.65
- GRM
- 13.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $372,238
- List price
- $309,990
- Delta
- -16.72%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6738 W Willow Way | 0.15mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (+2%) | 2mo | $379,900 | $236 | 87 |
| 6900 W Patriot Way | 0.22mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (+2%) | 4mo | $365,000 | $226 | 83 |
| 6611 W Trenton Ct | 0.26mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,627 (+3%) | 5mo | $340,000 | $209 | 73 |
| 4392 N Julieanne Ct | 0.57mi | 2/2.0 | 1,584 (+0%) | 4mo | $390,000 | $246 | 69 |
| 7391 W Stony Quail Way | 0.58mi | 2/2.0 | 1,620 (+3%) | 3mo | $401,000 | $248 | 66 |
| 4062 N Presidential Dr | 0.66mi | 2/2.0 | 1,594 (+1%) | 5mo | $490,000 | $307 | 63 |
| 6573 W Mockingbird Ct | 0.30mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-12%) | 3mo | $299,900 | $217 | 63 |
| 6606 W Mockingbird Ct | 0.35mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-12%) | 3mo | $275,000 | $199 | 61 |
| 6364 W Meadowlark Way | 0.44mi | 2/2.0 | 1,421 (-10%) | 5mo | $310,000 | $218 | 59 |
| 2845 N Crestwood Ct | 0.69mi | 2/2.0 | 1,481 (-6%) | 4mo | $270,000 | $182 | 54 |
| 5793 W Saratoga Ct | 0.60mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,781 (+13%) | 2mo | $440,000 | $247 | 44 |
| 3909 N Presidio Dr | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,756 (+11%) | 4mo | $315,000 | $179 | 40 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -32.1%
- Equity multiple
- -0.04×
- Total profit
- $-108,224
- Equity at exit
- $55,502
10-year hold
- IRR
- -48.1%
- Equity multiple
- -0.60×
- Total profit
- $-166,742
- Equity at exit
- $32,184
Cash invested: $104,227 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 56 active · 22 under contract
- Months of supply
- 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $353,922 ($220/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 168 d
- This list price
- 11% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +7.5% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85132
- Home prices YoY
- -5.2%
- Rents YoY
- 1.3%
- Active inventory
- 986
- Price-to-rent
- 10.8×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,385 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,952
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$465 /mo · $5,584/yr
- Insurance
- −$155
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$501
- Net cashflow
- $-689
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$3,256
Max offer price
$272,589
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-431 | -5% $-560 | +0% $-689 | +5% $-817 | +10% $-946 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-877 | -5% $-783 | +0% $-689 | +5% $-594 | +10% $-500 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-501 | -0.5pp $-594 | base $-689 | +0.5pp $-785 | +1.0pp $-883 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $93,059
- Closing costs
- $11,167
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 29 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $3,000 | $2.17 | 139d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $3,000 | $1.65 | 10d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $3,500 | $1.93 | 139d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $3,000 | $2.17 | 139d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1644 | $2,500 | $1.52 | 120d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 6498 W Victory Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2144 | $2,095 | $0.98 | 100d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 5728 W Autumn Vista Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2133 | $2,400 | $1.13 | 139d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1586 | $3,500 | $2.21 | 139d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1756 | $2,200 | $1.25 | 139d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1756 | $1,900 | $1.08 | 37d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,600 | $1.08 | 75d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,600 | $1.08 | 72d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 3759 N Astoria Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1759 | $1,695 | $0.96 | 27d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 5424 W Heritage Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,750 | $1.18 | 44d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 5430 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1481 | $1,650 | $1.11 | 84d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 2525 N Riverside Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1933 | $4,500 | $2.33 | 10d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 2528 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2002 | $2,195 | $1.10 | 139d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 6363 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1997 | $2,350 | $1.18 | 139d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1251 | $1,740 | $1.39 | 6d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1251 | $1,740 | $1.39 | 7d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 4024 N Cottonwood Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1890 | $2,000 | $1.06 | 49d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 2312 N Hudson Dr Florence, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1251 | $2,200 | $1.76 | 37d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1449 | $1,695 | $1.17 | 139d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1765 | $2,578 | $1.46 | 110d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 7525 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1451 | $2,100 | $1.45 | 10d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2041 | $1,700 | $0.83 | 80d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2041 | $1,700 | $0.83 | 94d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1450 | $1,700 | $1.17 | 139d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 2713 N Camden Dr Florence, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1262 | $1,500 | $1.19 | 42d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $309,990 Active 279 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $309,990 Active 278 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $309,990 Active 277 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $309,990 Active 276 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $309,990 Active 275 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $309,990 Active 274 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $309,990 Active 273 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $309,990 Active 272 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $309,990 Active 271 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $309,990 Active 270 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $309,990 Active 269 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $309,990 Active 268 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $309,990 Active 267 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $309,990 Active 261 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $309,990 Active 260 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $309,990 Active 259 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $309,990 Active 256 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $309,990 Active 255 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $309,990 Active 254 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $309,990 Active 253 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $309,990 Active 252 DOM
-
2026-08-26pricedays on market $309,990 Active 251 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $319,990 Active 250 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $319,990 Active 249 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $319,990 Active 248 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $319,990 Active 247 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $319,990 Active 246 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $319,990 Active 245 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $319,990 Active 244 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $319,990 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $319,990 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $319,990 Active 241 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $319,990 Active 240 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $319,990 Active 239 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $319,990 Active 238 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $319,990 Active 237 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $319,990 Active 236 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $319,990 Active 235 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $319,990 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $319,990 Active 233 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $319,990 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $319,990 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $319,990 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $319,990 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $319,990 Active 225 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $319,990 Active 224 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $319,990 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $319,990 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $319,990 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $319,990 Active 218 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,615
- − Mortgage interest
- −$20,851
- − Property taxes
- −$5,584
- − Insurance
- −$1,861
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,289
- − Management
- −$2,289
- − Depreciation
- −$10,829
- Taxable loss
- −$15,088
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,621
- After-tax cash flow
- $-4,643/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
None rehab
This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100
Zoned Schools
High
Florence High School
F
AZ #343/381
Nat'l #16,463/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Florence Unified School District (4437)
- NCES district ID
- 0402920
- Math proficiency
- 16% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $54,426
- Composite
- 18.31/100
- National rank
- #8950
- State rank
- #178 of 249 in AZ
C
Composite livability gradescore 60/100
Livability — Florence
- Score
- 60/100
- State rank
- #187
- US rank
- #19483
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime A+
Employment B-
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings C
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Florence, AZ
- County
- Pinal County · 437,574 people
- City population
- 38,671
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 38,671
- Household income
- $79,000
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2% of renters
Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 437,574 people
- By 2030
- 446,903 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 452,589 · +3.4%
- By 2050
- 444,126 · +1.5%
- By 2075
- 430,300 · -1.7%
- By 2100
- 393,536 · -10.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 23%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pinal
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -12.75%
- Current HPI
- 233.6644
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.27%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2025-12-19 Listed $319,990 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…