21035 Gravel Keep · San Antonio, TX 78266

$392,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,257 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot Est $418k · 6% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed for comfort, flexibility and fun, The Kendall floor plan at Brookstone Creek in San Antonio, TX offers a spacious 2161 square feet of thoughtfully arranged living space across two stories. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a game room, this layout is ideal for growing families or those who love to entertain. Inside the home, an open-concept kitchen, dining and living area keeps everyone connected. The kitchen is a standout with stainless steel appliances, a gas cooking range, quartz countertops, a farmhouse-style sink, flat panel cabinetry and a classic white subway tile backsplash. A spacious kitchen island adds extra prep space and casual seating. The primary suite is conveniently l

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• Flat panel cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKING RANGE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FARMHOUSE STYLE SINK
• FLAT PANEL CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $393k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (38.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bulverde Creek (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 1,003 students, 39% FRL); Hill Middle (math 51% / reading 64%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 1,044 students, 28% FRL); Johnson H S (math 69% / reading 80%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 3,202 students, 24% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the North East ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,273 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,545
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21114 Boulder Flts	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,257 (0%)	1mo	$392,950	$174	94
21158 Boulder Flts	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,257 (0%)	1mo	$417,950	$185	92
21106 Boulder Flts	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,257 (0%)	0mo	$419,950	$186	92
5216 Beck Path	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,257 (0%)	0mo	$444,045	$197	92
20922 Gravel Keep	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,257 (0%)	1mo	$438,000	$194	91
21133 Boulder Flts	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,171 (-4%)	2mo	$390,950	$180	89
21146 Boulder Flts	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,336 (+4%)	1mo	$428,950	$184	89
20821 Stonework Spur	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,310 (+2%)	1mo	$439,950	$190	79
20931 Stonework Spur	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-10%)	1mo	$425,950	$210	71
21726 Seminole Oaks	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,152 (-5%)	0mo	$330,000	$153	56
5602 Southern Oaks	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,481 (+10%)	1mo	$389,000	$157	56
5707 Pin	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,584 (+14%)	2mo	$449,999	$174	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $185,168
• Equity at exit: $354,000

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $567,488
• Equity at exit: $763,415

Cash invested: $110,026 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78266

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,433 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,061
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $811/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,003

Max offer price $313,435

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-339	+0% $-450	+5% $-1,010	+10% $-1,145
Rent	-10% $-642	-5% $-546	+0% $-450	+5% $-354	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-252	-0.5pp $-350	base $-450	+0.5pp $-552	+1.0pp $-656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,238
• Closing costs: $11,788
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21066 Gravel Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2257	$2,400	$1.06	0d	1	0.05mi
21223 Cobbles Loop San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2464	$2,850	$1.16	0d	1	0.16mi
5103 Gully Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,200	$1.24	14d	1	0.23mi
21266 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2257	$2,400	$1.06	45d	1	0.27mi
5536 Jewel Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	45d	1	0.28mi
5015 Gully Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2023	$2,400	$1.19	0d	1	0.29mi
5518 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$2,250	$1.26	4d	1	0.32mi
5518 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,250	$1.27	3d	1	0.32mi
5526 Pin Pt San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2995	$2,800	$0.93	4d	1	0.33mi
5515 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2257	$2,450	$1.09	23d	1	0.33mi
10822 Rindle Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2320	$1,949	$0.84	45d	1	0.34mi
20859 Rindle Ln San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,500	$1.23	21d	1	0.38mi
21339 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,300	$1.06	46d	1	0.39mi
5714 Pin Pt San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2146	$2,400	$1.12	0d	1	0.43mi
21027 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,195	$1.20	22d	1	0.45mi
5603 Chestnut Xing Unit 1545924P San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2992	$4,214	$1.41	9d	1	0.49mi
5603 Chestnut Xing San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2995	$2,800	$0.93	12d	1	0.49mi
5602 Chestnut Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1958	$2,250	$1.15	25d	1	0.52mi
21735 Thunder Basin San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2363	$2,150	$0.91	45d	1	0.67mi
22224 Backspin San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2323	$2,290	$0.99	12d	1	0.67mi
21514 Thunder Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,100	$1.09	19d	1	0.68mi
22219 Esperanza Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2428	$2,350	$0.97	4d	1	0.71mi
22419 Carriage Bush San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2340	$2,395	$1.02	45d	1	0.84mi
4610 Sebastian Oak San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2094	$2,095	$1.00	19d	1	0.96mi
22618 Double Bogey San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,950	$1.13	5d	1	0.96mi
22626 Double Bogey San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2309	$2,500	$1.08	45d	1	0.97mi
20223 Oak Panache San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.5	3037	$2,650	$0.87	22d	1	0.97mi
4526 Bexley Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,975	$1.19	4d	1	0.99mi
5951 Southern Knl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$2,500	$1.52	0d	1	1.00mi
5707 Tpc Pkwy San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1013	$1,838	$1.81	3d	19	1.03mi
20803 Cape Coral San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,200	$1.29	15d	1	1.06mi
5714 Agave Spine San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2011	$2,600	$1.29	45d	1	1.06mi
5040 Pitch San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,600	$1.05	0d	1	1.11mi
22763 Tee Shot San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2041	$2,300	$1.13	45d	1	1.16mi
22414 Akin Hts San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2827	$2,550	$0.90	45d	1	1.17mi
5106 Blind Shot San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	1950	$2,400	$1.23	45d	1	1.19mi
5505 TPC Pkwy Unit 3213 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1895	$2,438	$1.29	0d	1	1.19mi
5819 Akin Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,800	$1.09	25d	1	1.19mi
23215 Langdon Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$2,550	$1.23	4d	1	1.27mi
5040 Fairway Wood San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2548	$2,900	$1.14	19d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   price $392,950
3. 2025-11-12
   listed $425,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $811 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,191 · $599/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,380/yr (+$532/mo · 786.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,011
• − Property taxes: −$811
• − Insurance: −$1,965
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$11,431
• Taxable loss: −$12,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,038
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North East ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,715
• Composite: 38.1/100
• National rank: #4276
• State rank: #276 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 7,274

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 25% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Current HPI: 361.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $392,950 LERA
• 2025-11-12 Listed $425,500 LERA

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $811 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.