2020 Ashby #37 · Franklin, CA 95348

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful turn key home!!! Wood laminate flooring in the living room and bedrooms. Spacious kitchen with beautiful cabinets. Separate laundry area with shelf. Interior walls have been dry-walled. Nice size yard with fruit tree and spacious porch. Well taken care of and clean home.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1990
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area per assessor's data; Parcel number 910001483000; Directions: Ashby Rd to Merced Mobile Estates; Coordinates: 37.319663, -120.530825
• HOA & community: Land lease community (monthly land lease of $820); Rent includes trash, water, and sewer; Manager approval required for park residency; Pet policy: contact manager

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Merced Mobile Estates (park name)
• Utilities: Water from district/public supply; Sewer paid / connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Mobile home (14' x 56') — mobile home remains
• Construction: Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio; Yard; Community pool; Curbs

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Side entry; Entry at ground level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $973 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,087 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 329% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $45k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 104.28%
• DSCR: 5.64
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $49,673
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $103,785
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95348

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $158/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $494

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $998	-5% $985	+0% $973	+5% $960	+10% $947
Rent	-10% $836	-5% $904	+0% $973	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,109
Rate	-1.0pp $995	-0.5pp $984	base $973	+0.5pp $961	+1.0pp $949

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    historical $45,000
18. 2015-10-16
    soldstatus $9,000 Closed Sale 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Beautiful turn key home!!! Wood laminate flooring in the living room and bedrooms. Spacious kitchen with beautiful cabinets. Separate laundry area with shelf. Interior walls have been dry-walled. Nice size yard with fruit tree and spacious porch. Well taken care of and clean home.

19. 2015-10-12
    status Pending Sale 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Beautiful turn key home!!! Wood laminate flooring in the living room and bedrooms. Spacious kitchen with beautiful cabinets. Separate laundry area with shelf. Interior walls have been dry-walled. Nice size yard with fruit tree and spacious porch. Well taken care of and clean home.

20. 2015-09-23
    price $9,800 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Beautiful turn key home!!! Wood laminate flooring in the living room and bedrooms. Spacious kitchen with beautiful cabinets. Separate laundry area with shelf. Interior walls have been dry-walled. Nice size yard with fruit tree and spacious porch. Well taken care of and clean home.

21. 2015-08-28
    listed $10,500 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Beautiful turn key home!!! Wood laminate flooring in the living room and bedrooms. Spacious kitchen with beautiful cabinets. Separate laundry area with shelf. Interior walls have been dry-walled. Nice size yard with fruit tree and spacious porch. Well taken care of and clean home.

22. 2015-04-22
    soldstatus $6,500 Closed Sale 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Pride of ownership says it all. High grade laminate flooring makes cleaning a breeze. Bedrooms are situated on opposite ends of this well cared for mobile home. Separate laundry room. Kitchen boasts ample storage and work space. Interior walls have been dry-walled, so bring your decorating ideas, grab your paint brush and put your personal touches on it.

23. 2015-04-07
    status Pending Sale 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Pride of ownership says it all. High grade laminate flooring makes cleaning a breeze. Bedrooms are situated on opposite ends of this well cared for mobile home. Separate laundry room. Kitchen boasts ample storage and work space. Interior walls have been dry-walled, so bring your decorating ideas, grab your paint brush and put your personal touches on it.

24. 2015-03-25
    listed $6,500 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Pride of ownership says it all. High grade laminate flooring makes cleaning a breeze. Bedrooms are situated on opposite ends of this well cared for mobile home. Separate laundry room. Kitchen boasts ample storage and work space. Interior walls have been dry-walled, so bring your decorating ideas, grab your paint brush and put your personal touches on it.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $158 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $342 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 116.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$158
• − Insurance: −$1,693
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $11,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,810
• After-tax cash flow: $8,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Franklin

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1087
• US rank: #25385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Franklin, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,540
• Household income: $64,944
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1408.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 23% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 8% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.74%
• Current HPI: 247.7309
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+592.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $45,000 CRMLS
• 2015-10-16 Sold (MLS) $9,000 CRMLS
• 2015-10-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2015-09-23 Price Changed $9,800 CRMLS
• 2015-08-28 Listed $10,500 CRMLS
• 2015-04-22 Sold (MLS) $6,500 CRMLS
• 2015-04-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2015-03-25 Listed $6,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2020): $158 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.