15820 S Harlan Rd #98 · Lathrop, CA 95330

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 123 Days on market

Built 1972 $118/sqft · 14% below area Est $184k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1972
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lathrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#842 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.71%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,595
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -13.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15820 S Harlan Rd #158	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	7mo	$192,000	$140	88
15820 S Harlan Rd #22	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$190,000	$132	71
15820 S Harlan Rd #13	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-11%)	14mo	$112,500	$94	65
15820 S Harlan Rd #16	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	13mo	$169,000	$147	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $64,133
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $168,146
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95330

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $1,427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,536	-5% $1,482	+0% $1,427	+5% $1,373	+10% $1,318
Rent	-10% $1,175	-5% $1,301	+0% $1,427	+5% $1,553	+10% $1,679
Rate	-1.0pp $1,507	-0.5pp $1,467	base $1,427	+0.5pp $1,386	+1.0pp $1,345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Stanford Xg Lathrop, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1472	$3,326	$2.26	3d	47	0.36mi
16012 Julie Ln Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,800	$2.45	24d	1	0.38mi
631 Estancia St Lathrop, CA	4.0	3.0	1870	$3,199	$1.71	3d	1	0.67mi
1241 Shawn Ct Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,395	$1.77	24d	1	0.88mi
240 Towne Centre Dr Unit A301 Lathrop, CA	2.0	2.0	1046	$2,461	$2.35	44d	1	1.02mi
994 Osprey Dr Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,800	$1.85	3d	1	1.04mi
14061 Jasper St Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,700	$2.00	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $158,000 Pending 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $158,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $158,000 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,061
• − Management: −$3,061
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $15,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,729
• After-tax cash flow: $13,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lathrop

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #23278

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lathrop, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 35,395
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,395
• Household income: $125,421
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 309.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 32% Two or more races 22% White 19% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 12% Tagalog/Filipino 7%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.75%
• Current HPI: 306.2299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B