1470 S Palo Verde Ave Unit J213 · Tucson, AZ 85713

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 111 Days on market

Built 1962 $235/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICED TO SELL! Centrally located 2 bedroom condo close to Reid Park, shopping and running/biking paths. This property boasts brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, updated outlets and switches with added GFCI outlets in kitchen and bathroom. Enjoy being close to the swimming pool, laundry facility and mailboxes. Monthly fee includes seasonal pads/maintenance on cooler, roof/structural, pest control, taxes, water, sewer, trash, pool/grounds and 1 covered parking spot. You won't want to miss this one!

Key facts

• Added gfci outlets
• Fresh paint
• Brand new flooring

Tags

• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED OUTLETS
• ADDED GFCI OUTLETS
• CLOSE TO SWIMMING POOL
• CLOSE TO LAUNDRY FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Robison Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 265 students, 76% FRL); Mansfeld Middle Magnet School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 60% FRL); Tucson Magnet High School (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #240 of 381 statewide, top 63%, 3,162 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $69k implies a 306% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.75%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-146
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $6,166
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $245	+0% $221	+5% $198	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $175	+0% $221	+5% $268	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $239	base $221	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3331 E 24th St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,400	$1.31	44d	1	0.18mi
3661 E Sylvane St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	877	$1,350	$1.54	44d	1	0.37mi
3764 E 27th Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1049	$1,495	$1.43	12d	1	0.47mi
3659 E Ellington Pl Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	870	$1,000	$1.15	12d	1	0.49mi
1727 S Winstel Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	0.52mi
2151 S Winstel Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$825	$0.92	24d	1	0.65mi
1902 S Montezuma Ave Unit D Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$995	$1.28	44d	1	0.69mi
1902 S Montezuma Ave Unit C Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	17d	1	0.69mi
1926 S Montezuma Ave #1932 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	24d	1	0.72mi
1841 S Irving Ave Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$675	$0.75	17d	1	0.87mi
2921 E 17th St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	625	$975	$1.56	22d	1	0.90mi
2921 E 17th St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	625	$1,075	$1.72	44d	1	0.90mi
2843 E 17th St Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$900	$1.61	24d	1	0.91mi
4038 E 17th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,700	$1.63	4d	1	0.94mi
4170 E 32nd St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,095	$1.51	15d	1	1.00mi
4170 E 32nd St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,095	$1.51	17d	1	1.00mi
1530 S Columbus Blvd #8 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	17d	1	1.01mi
1524 S Columbus Blvd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	689	$825	$1.20	4d	1	1.03mi
4255 E 29th St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	585	$999	$1.71	4d	7	1.04mi
2512 E Eastland St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	44d	1	1.05mi
333 S Alvernon Way #60 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,975	$1.83	44d	1	1.05mi
3051 E Proctor Vis Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	44d	1	1.07mi
3049 E Proctor Vis Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	44d	1	1.07mi
3049 E Proctor Vis Unit ProctorVista3051 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	1.07mi
3991 E Timrod St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	3d	1	1.08mi
3043 E Proctor Vis Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	17d	1	1.08mi
850 S Tucson Blvd Unit Tucson886 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	525	$800	$1.52	44d	1	1.08mi
455 S Irving Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	825	$995	$1.21	44d	1	1.10mi
725 S Tucson Blvd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	538	$1,430	$2.66	44d	1	1.11mi
601 S Bryant Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,300	$1.29	12d	1	1.12mi
4101 E Brown Way Unit Brown 4103 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	24d	1	1.14mi
4101 E Brown Way Unit Brown 4117 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	938	$1,150	$1.23	24d	1	1.14mi
460 S Bryant Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$745	$0.93	44d	1	1.17mi
460 S Bryant Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$743	$1.24	4d	1	1.17mi
460 S Bryant Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$995	$1.24	24d	1	1.17mi
660 S Tucson Blvd Unit 103 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$850	$1.42	24d	1	1.17mi
660 S Tucson Blvd Unit 114 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$725	$1.21	44d	1	1.17mi
4162 E Brown Way Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$900	$1.50	44d	1	1.19mi
4171 E Brown Way Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	583	$850	$1.46	24d	1	1.21mi
2355 E 17th St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2025-12-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-04
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-03
   historical Active Contingent
4. 2025-10-20
   price $69,000
5. 2025-08-15
   listed $79,000 Active
6. 2025-05-23
   historical
7. 2025-03-01
   status Active
8. 2025-03-01
   historical
9. 2025-02-07
   price $69,000
10. 2024-11-14
    price $85,000
11. 2024-10-17
    listed $55,000 Active
12. 2010-04-30
    historical
13. 2008-05-12
    listed $40,000
14. 2002-02-01
    historical
15. 2001-09-04
    soldstatus $17,000
16. 2001-07-12
    listed $19,000
17. 1999-02-04
    listed $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $1,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$440
• After-tax cash flow: $2,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-04 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-03 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $69,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-15 Listed $79,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-23 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-01 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $69,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $85,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-10-17 Listed $55,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-04-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2008-05-12 Listed $40,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-02-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2001-09-04 Sold (MLS) $17,000 MLSSAZ
• 2001-07-12 Listed $19,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-02-04 Listed $23,000 MLSSAZ