920 Damron Loop · Childers Hill, TN 38326

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1976 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully renovated home w/ carport - new roof, windows, hvac and ductwork - waterproof LVP throughout and new appliances. Close proximity to Pickwick Lake and Recreational Area.

Key facts

• Fully renovated home
• New hvac
• New ductwork

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW HVAC
• NEW DUCTWORK
• WATERPROOF LVP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Covered parking (1 space); 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Water service available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Other construction materials; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot; Lot approximately 0.47 acres (140 x 160)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Formal dining room; Formal living room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Storage structure on property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hardin County (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pickwick Southside School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 197 students, 0% FRL); Hardin County High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 996 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $145k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.93%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $91,029
• Equity at exit: $102,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $235,424
• Equity at exit: $196,360

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38326

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $647	+0% $606	+5% $565	+10% $524
Rent	-10% $459	-5% $533	+0% $606	+5% $680	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $679	-0.5pp $643	base $606	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $530

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $144,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    price $144,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,999 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,999 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,999 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,999 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $147,999 Active 174-char remark
17. 2025-04-21
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 85.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $5,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $6,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 4701680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,404
• Composite: 22.64/100
• National rank: #8061
• State rank: #76 of 139 in TN

Livability — Childers Hill

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,566

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,740 people
• By 2030: 23,971 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,284 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 20,612 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 17,072 · -31.0%
• By 2100: 13,723 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.1% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+67.5 2016: R+64.2 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.21%
• Current HPI: 303.1462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+253.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $144,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $147,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.