426 Roxana Rd · Highland Springs, VA 23075

$184,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,032 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1974 1,677 sqft lot Est $170k · 9% over $120/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly Renovated! Check it out! New Carpet & paint! New Gas Range!

Key facts

• $120 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.1% in Highland Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $185k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 Roxana Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,032 (0%)	1mo	$184,999	$179	100
410 Adamson St	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,032 (0%)	2mo	$155,005	$150	96
1924 Beaver Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,032 (0%)	2mo	$145,000	$141	95
428 Roxana Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,032 (0%)	7mo	$170,000	$165	94
1928 Repp Cir	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,032 (0%)	7mo	$170,000	$165	90
405 Roxana Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,032 (0%)	7mo	$169,900	$165	88
402 Fairbury Rd	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,032 (0%)	9mo	$180,000	$174	87
307 Bernie Ct	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,051 (+2%)	3mo	$180,000	$171	85
204 Cornett St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,032 (0%)	7mo	$174,000	$169	84
401 Adamson St	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,130 (+10%)	2mo	$152,000	$135	81
1907 Repp St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,085 (+5%)	9mo	$185,000	$171	78
312 Cedarwood Rd #312	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,184 (+15%)	5mo	$165,000	$139	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,013
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,562
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23075

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,106/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $184,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Roxana Rd Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1085	$2,050	$1.89	3d	1	0.02mi
6 Naglee Ave Sandston, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	44d	1	0.70mi
901 E 9 Mile Rd Unit a Highland Springs, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,312	$1.64	21d	1	0.71mi
1000 E Washington St Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	888	$2,000	$2.25	3d	1	0.71mi
239 N Mapleleaf Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	23d	1	0.92mi
118 N Linden Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,795	$1.66	44d	1	0.96mi
2230 E Nine Mile Rd Sandston, VA	4.0	1.5	1400	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	1.01mi
339 E Jerald St Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1160	$1,950	$1.68	44d	1	1.07mi
117 N Ivy Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,590	$1.62	3d	1	1.10mi
29 Wootton Rd Sandston, VA	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,750	$1.61	3d	1	1.31mi
132 N Elm Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,629	$1.94	44d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $184,999 Active
3. 2009-09-22
   historical
4. 2006-05-02
   soldstatus $79,000
5. 2006-04-28
   soldstatus $79,000 71-char remark

   Show marketing remark (71 chars)

   Newly Renovated! Check it out! New Carpet & paint! New Gas Range!

6. 2006-04-28
   soldstatus $79,000

   Show marketing remark (71 chars)

   Newly Renovated! Check it out! New Carpet & paint! New Gas Range!

7. 2006-01-26
   listed $75,000 71-char remark

   Show marketing remark (71 chars)

   Newly Renovated! Check it out! New Carpet & paint! New Gas Range!

8. 2006-01-26
   listed $75,000

   Show marketing remark (71 chars)

   Newly Renovated! Check it out! New Carpet & paint! New Gas Range!

9. 2006-01-17
   historical
10. 2005-01-01
    listed $75,000
11. 2005-01-01
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 37.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,106
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $3,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Springs, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 8,347
• Household income: $55,567
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.15%
• Current HPI: 458.732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+146.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $184,999 CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2006-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $79,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $79,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-01-26 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-01-26 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-01-17 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2005-01-01 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-01-01 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,106 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.