1280 Dillard Dr SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$399,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,873 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2013 0.39 ac lot $82/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on almost half an acre with a screened saltwater pool, private PVC-fenced backyard, and open-concept design that sets the stage for effortless Florida living in this beautifully appointed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage. Tile flooring flows throughout the entire residence, while the spacious kitchen is enhanced by granite countertops and seamless connectivity to the main living and dining areas, creating an ideal space for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers added comfort with dual vanities and separate his-and-her sinks. Located within the sought-after Wellington at Bayside Lakes community, residents enjoy access to an impressive lineup of ameniti

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Fitness center
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• SCREENED SALTWATER POOL
• PRIVATE PVC-FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-734 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 798 students, 52% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,861 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $172,568
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $548,097
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,827/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$82
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,268

Max offer price $270,265

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-507	-5% $-621	+0% $-734	+5% $-847	+10% $-960
Rent	-10% $-919	-5% $-826	+0% $-734	+5% $-641	+10% $-549
Rate	-1.0pp $-532	-0.5pp $-632	base $-734	+0.5pp $-837	+1.0pp $-943

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1224 Dillard Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,336	$1.32	15d	1	0.06mi
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	15d	1	0.12mi
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	22d	1	0.25mi
830 Painesville St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,220	$1.09	15d	1	0.32mi
555 Gagnon St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2373	$2,400	$1.01	25d	1	0.38mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	22d	1	0.49mi
2749 Freehold Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,800	$1.30	25d	1	0.63mi
2250 Chinaberry Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$1,995	$1.20	25d	1	0.67mi
978 Remington Green Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	0.69mi
2785 Gabboys Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	25d	1	0.72mi
486 Dadeville St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	15d	1	0.77mi
402 Breckenridge Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	25d	1	0.81mi
160 Dailey St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,275	$1.27	25d	1	0.99mi
1198 Venus St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,961	$1.28	22d	1	0.99mi
1165 Rabbit St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,895	$0.95	20d	1	0.99mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	25d	1	1.19mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	25d	1	1.24mi
2650 De Groodt Rd SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,350	$1.25	15d	1	1.36mi
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	20d	1	1.39mi
2036 Walsh Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,930	$1.45	25d	1	1.40mi
1454 Graves St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	15d	1	1.41mi
291 Foley St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,025	$1.10	14d	1	1.43mi
3247 Halblum Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,516	$1.38	14d	1	1.45mi
1406 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,100	$1.01	25d	1	1.46mi
286 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,925	$1.05	15d	1	1.47mi
1416 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	15d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $82 · $984/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $399,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $399,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,827 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$492/yr (+$41/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,827
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − HOA: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$16,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,905
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-74.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $399,900 SCMLS
• 2011-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,575,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,827 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.