1085 Tonawanda Creek Rd · North Tonawanda, NY 14228

$289,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot Est $320k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled 4br, 2fl bth, 4 car garage on 1.8 wooded acres of private land adjacent to Nature View. New tear off arch room on home (16), garage (17), updated vinyl wndws. Sensible radiant heat under oak floored open floor plan and kitchen w/ granite tile counter tops and breakfast bar, mahogany, 2 first flr brs can be lived in as a ranch, exquisite ceiling to floor marble tile shower, marble floor on 1st flr, 2brs upstairs and full abth with ceiling to floor tile, entire home has new plumbing and electric lines from top to bottom, whole home is LED lighting, huge open entertaining bonus space in bsmt w/ solid oak, granite dry bar, new concrete parking (31 yards) - must see! See attached survey.

Key facts

• Recreational land
• Huge garage
• Updated electric

Tags

• HUGE GARAGE
• WOODED ACRES
• RECREATIONAL LAND
• NATURE PRESERVE
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• UPDATED PLUMBING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electric, storage and workshop area; Driveway parking; 4-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story residence; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; PEX plumbing; Year built: existing
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Gravel driveway; Shed(s) and storage; Greenbelt; Irregular wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main level: 2 bedrooms; Second level: 2 bedrooms; Basement: additional rooms that can be used as bedrooms or other living space
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total; 1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Electric and gas heating; Baseboard heating; Radiant floor heating; Radiant heating; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Home office; Living/dining room; Solid surface counters; Bedroom on main level; Partially finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Heights Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 406 students, 36% FRL); Sweet Home Middle School (math 21% / reading 52%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 768 students, 54% FRL); Sweet Home Senior High School (math 93% / reading 87%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 1,072 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $206k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $231,263 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,554
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 Tonawanda Creek Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-6%)	18mo	$300,000	$246	66
7453 Bear Ridge Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-6%)	2mo	$301,000	$247	59
511 Vine Ln	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+11%)	10mo	$265,000	$184	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-59,298
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-67,548
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14228

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,651/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $254,277

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-115	+0% $-197	+5% $-278	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-288	+0% $-197	+5% $-105	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-123	base $-197	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Fairgreen Dr Unit Right side Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	3d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $289,000 Active
3. 2018-07-05
   soldstatus $206,125 Closed Sale or Rented 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Completely remodeled 4br, 2fl bth, 4 car garage on 1.8 wooded acres of private land adjacent to Nature View. New tear off arch room on home (16), garage (17), updated vinyl wndws. Sensible radiant heat under oak floored open floor plan and kitchen w/ granite tile counter tops and breakfast bar, mahogany, 2 first flr brs can be lived in as a ranch, exquisite ceiling to floor marble tile shower, marble floor on 1st flr, 2brs upstairs and full abth with ceiling to floor tile, entire home has new plumbing and electric lines from top to bottom, whole home is LED lighting, huge open entertaining bonus space in bsmt w/ solid oak, granite dry bar, new concrete parking (31 yards) - must see! See attached survey.

4. 2018-07-03
   soldstatus $206,125
5. 2018-03-13
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Completely remodeled 4br, 2fl bth, 4 car garage on 1.8 wooded acres of private land adjacent to Nature View. New tear off arch room on home (16), garage (17), updated vinyl wndws. Sensible radiant heat under oak floored open floor plan and kitchen w/ granite tile counter tops and breakfast bar, mahogany, 2 first flr brs can be lived in as a ranch, exquisite ceiling to floor marble tile shower, marble floor on 1st flr, 2brs upstairs and full abth with ceiling to floor tile, entire home has new plumbing and electric lines from top to bottom, whole home is LED lighting, huge open entertaining bonus space in bsmt w/ solid oak, granite dry bar, new concrete parking (31 yards) - must see! See attached survey.

6. 2018-03-06
   listed $200,000 Active 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Completely remodeled 4br, 2fl bth, 4 car garage on 1.8 wooded acres of private land adjacent to Nature View. New tear off arch room on home (16), garage (17), updated vinyl wndws. Sensible radiant heat under oak floored open floor plan and kitchen w/ granite tile counter tops and breakfast bar, mahogany, 2 first flr brs can be lived in as a ranch, exquisite ceiling to floor marble tile shower, marble floor on 1st flr, 2brs upstairs and full abth with ceiling to floor tile, entire home has new plumbing and electric lines from top to bottom, whole home is LED lighting, huge open entertaining bonus space in bsmt w/ solid oak, granite dry bar, new concrete parking (31 yards) - must see! See attached survey.

7. 2012-02-01
   soldstatus $70,000 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   VRP pricing. Seller will consider offers between $80,000 and $100,000. Across the road from Amherst Veterans Canal Park and the Erie Canal! Great 4 bedroom on 1 acre lot, living room, formal dining room, eat in kitchen, 1st floor bedroom, hardwood floors throughout, full basement, 4 car detached garage. Could be used as a 2 bedroom ranch. See it today!

8. 2012-01-31
   soldstatus $70,000
9. 2010-10-11
   listed $100,000 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   VRP pricing. Seller will consider offers between $80,000 and $100,000. Across the road from Amherst Veterans Canal Park and the Erie Canal! Great 4 bedroom on 1 acre lot, living room, formal dining room, eat in kitchen, 1st floor bedroom, hardwood floors throughout, full basement, 4 car detached garage. Could be used as a 2 bedroom ranch. See it today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,651 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,767 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,651
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,220
• − Management: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$7,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,771
• After-tax cash flow: $-587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweet Home Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,509
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2765
• State rank: #342 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 25,350
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1566.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 13% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.08%
• Current HPI: 316.3097
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+189.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $289,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-07-05 Sold (MLS) $206,125 WNYREIS
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $206,125 Public Records
• 2018-03-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-03-06 Listed $200,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-02-01 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-11 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,651 · -18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.