14 Overlook Dr · Montpelier, VT 05602

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $185k · 7% over $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a place to call home? Welcome to Overlook Drive, Montpelier’s only single-family, condominiumized neighborhood. Offering affordable home ownership with a low quarterly condo fee that covers snow plowing, lawn mowing, and a master insurance policy. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, an eat-in kitchen with loads of counter space and cabinets, and a light-filled living room with a gas fireplace. This well-maintianed home features a new roof, new vinyl wood plank flooring, a new mini-split, and a newly constructed carport. Enjoy the private backyard, perfect for barbecues and relaxing in the sun. There is a 10 x 10 shed for your storage needs. Located just inside

Key facts

• Private backyard
• New mini-split
• New roof

Tags

• LOW QUARTERLY CONDO FEE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW VINYL WOOD PLANK FLOORING
• NEW MINI-SPLIT
• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED CARPORT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-919/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Montpelier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in VT, #670 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #31 of 192 statewide, top 21%, 448 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $175,784 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,328
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Overlook Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$156	98
315 State St	0.13mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,268 (+7%)	17mo	$319,000	$252	62
5 Gaylord Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-12%)	12mo	$350,000	$333	54
14 Lague Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,330 (+12%)	23mo	$183,050	$138	52
7 Lague Dr	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+14%)	23mo	$199,000	$147	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,040
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,200
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05602

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $187,923

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: gassnow removalinsurance

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,277
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Montpelier, VT is in good condition with a good roof and exterior. It has a good kitchen and bathrooms, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace the front door — Improves security and aesthetics
• Resale Replace the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace the front door — Improves security and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Montpelier

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #670

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montpelier, VT
• Population (ZIP): 12,491

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.34%
• Current HPI: 344.3382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $199,000 PrimeMLS