713 Sheep Pen Rd · Unadilla, NY 13849

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Manufactured public records · 221 Days on market

Built 2002 1.05 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Sitting on Top of the World! Well cared for single wide manufactured home with panoramic views and gorgeous sunsets. This spotless 2BD 2BA home is nestled on a level acre on a gently used rural road. Enjoy the peaceful setting while sitting on your covered front porch which has trex decking. The home's metal roof was installed approximately 2015. The 4 car garage with a workshop bench and on a cement pad has electric and is heated with a wood stove for those winter projects. The concrete flooring has some cracking along with the damaged garage doors and is therefore exempt from inspection.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• 4 car garage

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• TREX DECKING
• METAL ROOF
• 4 CAR GARAGE
• WORKSHOP BENCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.5% in Unadilla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#950 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Otego-Unadilla Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #547 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $97,279
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.70×
• Total profit: $272,098
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13849

• Home prices YoY: 32.7%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,881/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $328	+0% $287	+5% $246	+10% $205
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $224	+0% $287	+5% $351	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $324	base $287	+0.5pp $250	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-30
   price $145,000
3. 2025-09-02
   price $158,000
4. 2025-07-28
   listed $168,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,881 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,881
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$286
• After-tax cash flow: $3,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Otego-Unadilla Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,590
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5896
• State rank: #547 of 590 in NY

Livability — Unadilla

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #950
• US rank: #18482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,351

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,987 people
• By 2030: 55,403 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 50,336 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 45,715 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 38,769 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 33,468 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 46.1% · R 53.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+13.0 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 82.22%
• Current HPI: 333.8209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $145,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $158,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $168,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,881 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.