15597 Penalber Rd · Killian, LA 70449

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

Built 2006 Fair condition 0.49 ac lot $90/sqft · 60% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR/2BA Mobile Home in Good Condition. Living Room has Ceiling Fan, Nice Floors, and Fresh Paint. The Kitchen is very Spacious with an Island Breakfast Bar. Primary Bedroom Opens to an Ensuite Bath with Dual Vanities, Garden Soaking Tub, and a Separate Shower. Covered Porch and Covered Parking. Priced to Sell. Possible Bond For Deed Financing

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Ceiling fan
• Dual vanities

Tags

• CEILING FAN
• ISLAND BREAKFAST BAR
• ENSUITE BATH
• DUAL VANITIES
• GARDEN SOAKING TUB
• COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.2% in Killian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#333 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.66%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,949
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 59.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $26,952
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $82,249
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70449

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,911 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $755	+0% $715	+5% $676	+10% $636
Rent	-10% $564	-5% $640	+0% $715	+5% $791	+10% $866
Rate	-1.0pp $773	-0.5pp $745	base $715	+0.5pp $685	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2025-11-14
   listed $115,000 Active 344-char remark

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   3BR/2BA Mobile Home in Good Condition. Living Room has Ceiling Fan, Nice Floors, and Fresh Paint. The Kitchen is very Spacious with an Island Breakfast Bar. Primary Bedroom Opens to an Ensuite Bath with Dual Vanities, Garden Soaking Tub, and a Separate Shower. Covered Porch and Covered Parking. Priced to Sell. Possible Bond For Deed Financing

4. 2025-11-14
   listed $115,000 Active 344-char remark

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   3BR/2BA Mobile Home in Good Condition. Living Room has Ceiling Fan, Nice Floors, and Fresh Paint. The Kitchen is very Spacious with an Island Breakfast Bar. Primary Bedroom Opens to an Ensuite Bath with Dual Vanities, Garden Soaking Tub, and a Separate Shower. Covered Porch and Covered Parking. Priced to Sell. Possible Bond For Deed Financing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,835
• − Management: −$1,835
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $6,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

A mobile home in fair condition with average interior and exterior. It requires moderate repairs to the siding and some maintenance to the landscaping. Painting the siding and improving the landscaping can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Mobile home siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Minor Mobile home roof — No visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the mobile home siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract renters and increase rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Mobile home siding · Weathered and needs repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Mobile home roof · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the mobile home siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract renters and increase rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Killian

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #22333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,005

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.15%
• Current HPI: 110.6443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Listed $115,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $115,000 GSREIN