23546 Warbler Way Unit C1 · Shell Lake, MN 56501

$245,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1955 Good condition 8.05 ac lot $215/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Updated Cabin on ISLAND LAKE. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom, 768 sq ft, FULLY FURNISHED cabin at the former Hatfield Resort on Island Lake. This cozy retreat is part of the South Island View Resort LLC, offering a 1/23th ownership interest in a well-maintained lakeside community. The cabin features modern updates throughout, including new countertops, flooring, a mini-split heating/cooling system, gas fireplace and a durable metal roof. The association amenities include: Lawn care, Beach maintenance, Dock access, Property taxes, Trash service, Mosquito spray, Maintenance of common areas. Whether you're looking for a weekend geta

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Modern updates
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED CABIN
• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY
• MODERN UPDATES
• GAS FIREPLACE
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• DOCK ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approx. 8.05-acre parcel within the association; Lake bottom: hard and sand; Approximately 988 feet of waterfront (association/shared)
• HOA & community: Part of South Island View Resort LLC; Annual association fee (paid annually) covering beach access, dock, hazard insurance, lawn care, sewer and water; Association amenities: beach, dock, boat slip, laundry

Exterior

• Parking: Open gravel parking
• Utilities: Shared well and private well; Shared septic (compliant); Electric and propane available
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Main floor primary bedroom; Entry faces waterfront (lake view)
• Construction: Metal roof; Block foundation; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Accessible shoreline; Light tree coverage; Irregular lot shape; Private road frontage; On waterfront with lakefront and lake view; shared association access; Boat slip included

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Ductless mini-split heating and cooling
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Main floor 3/4 bath; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Shared/common area laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Frazee-Vergas Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #196 of 301 in MN (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 156 units permitted in Becker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Becker County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.06%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,460
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $13,920
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56501

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$215
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,415

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $215 · $2,580/yr
• Likely covers: trashgaslandscaping

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $245,000
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $255,000 Active
18. 2025-11-01
    historical
19. 2025-07-08
    listed $255,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,740
• − Management: −$2,740
• − HOA: −$2,580
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$105
• After-tax cash flow: $4,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

A charming, fully updated cabin on Island Lake with modern amenities and a lakeside community. Ready for immediate occupancy with minor cosmetic improvements to enhance curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bath — Modernizes spaces and improves rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bath — Modernizes spaces and improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frazee-Vergas Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2712360
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $50,634
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4521
• State rank: #196 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shell Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,239

Population outlook (Becker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,604 people
• By 2030: 35,095 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 35,691 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 35,869 · +3.7%
• By 2075: 36,103 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 32,798 · -5.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 25% Scottish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Becker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.7% · R 65.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.3pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+14.6 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.40%
• Current HPI: 217.4973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Listed $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid