1002 N Chalet Cir · Payson, AZ 85541

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1971 8,276 sqft lot $296/sqft · 60% above area Est $185k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Shaded by towering Ponderosa pines on a quiet cul-de-sac, with a spacious and inviting living area, this mountain hideaway offers a large, cool, covered deck to enjoy the gentle breezes whispering through the pines. Inside the charm is accented by the tile background surrounding the wood stove and the built in shelving and wood paneling.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Built in shelving

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• WOOD STOVE
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• WOOD PANELING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($174/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $199k implies a 398% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,650 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,898
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 7.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 E Forest Dr	0.40mi	2/1.0	728 (+8%)	16mo	$132,000	$181	54
908 N William Tell Cir	0.55mi	2/2.0	652 (-3%)	24mo	$93,500	$143	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,423
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,579
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $590/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $199,000 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Shaded by towering Ponderosa pines on a quiet cul-de-sac, with a spacious and inviting living area, this mountain hideaway offers a large, cool, covered deck to enjoy the gentle breezes whispering through the pines. Inside the charm is accented by the tile background surrounding the wood stove and the built in shelving and wood paneling.

17. 1996-10-17
    soldstatus $40,000
18. 1993-12-17
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $590 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$724/yr (+$60/mo · 122.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$590
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$800
• After-tax cash flow: $974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+398.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $199,000 CAAR
• 1996-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $590 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.