7447 Wheatley Gardens Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2018 5,501 sqft lot Est $258k · 9% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offering comfort, functionality, and modern finishes throughout! Step inside to find an inviting open-concept layout featuring a large living area, separate dining space, and durable wood-style flooring in the main areas with plush carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen overlooks the living and dining spaces and offers abundant cabinet storage, breakfast bar seating, dark cabinetry, and plenty of counter space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom with an ensuite bath complete with dual vanity space, soaking tub, separate shower, and generous storage. Secondary be

Key facts

• 5,501 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Leland Woods HOA with an annual fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2018; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (including primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Window treatments; Window coverings; Seller provided disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,854/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,930 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,060
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7706 Tully Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+5%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	76
7450 Ida Wells Forest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+8%)	2mo	$220,000	$134	76
7227 Colton St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-0%)	0mo	$214,000	$142	69
6702 Leedale St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	2mo	$139,900	$96	66
7203 Gore Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,609 (+6%)	2mo	$159,000	$99	60
10643 Red Orchid Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (-7%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	58
6302 Hanley Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$189,999	$132	56
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	55
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	54
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	54
7630 Yoe St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	44
10507 Royal Oaks Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (-14%)	2mo	$215,000	$164	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $81,900
• Equity at exit: $189,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $244,999
• Equity at exit: $385,622

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,124/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,256

Max offer price $178,930

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-251	+0% $-317	+5% $-384	+10% $-450
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-391	+0% $-317	+5% $-244	+10% $-171
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-258	base $-317	+0.5pp $-378	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.20mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.33mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	0.35mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.48mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.48mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.52mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	26d	1	0.58mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.65mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.70mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	0.71mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.82mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	15d	1	0.82mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	0.86mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	1.00mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	1.01mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	22d	1	1.11mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	1.15mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.17mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	9d	1	1.18mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.31mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	1.31mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	1.31mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	26d	1	1.32mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	3d	5	1.36mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	26d	1	1.38mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	0d	1	1.41mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.41mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	45d	1	1.46mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	45d	1	1.46mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	1.46mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	9d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-25
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$5,124
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$7,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+30.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,124 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.