1822 Lamar Cir · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$184,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1995 7,405 sqft lot $140/sqft · 38% above area Est $134k · 38% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Awesome 3 bedroom, 1 3/4 bath house with a 2 car garage, will have brand new interior/exterior paint. Vinyl plank in the living room and bedrooms, ceramic tile flooring throughout the rest of the home, fireplace in the living room.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1995

Tags

• VINYL PLANK IN LIVING ROOM
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,879 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,538
• List price: $184,500
• Delta: 38.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,057
• Equity at exit: $27,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,747
• Equity at exit: $15,952

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $895/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $184,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $291	+0% $239	+5% $187	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $171	+0% $239	+5% $307	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $286	base $239	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	24d	1	0.39mi
2360 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,600	$1.36	24d	1	0.41mi
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	24d	1	0.48mi
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	24d	1	0.56mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	4d	1	0.56mi
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	15d	1	0.61mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	4d	1	0.65mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	45d	2	0.68mi
2116 N Scenic Dr Apt A1 Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	957	$950	$0.99	24d	1	0.74mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	44d	1	1.04mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Awesome 3 bedroom, 1 3/4 bath house with a 2 car garage, will have brand new interior/exterior paint. Vinyl plank in the living room and bedrooms, ceramic tile flooring throughout the rest of the home, fireplace in the living room.

2. 2026-03-18
   listed $184,500 Active 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Awesome 3 bedroom, 1 3/4 bath house with a 2 car garage, will have brand new interior/exterior paint. Vinyl plank in the living room and bedrooms, ceramic tile flooring throughout the rest of the home, fireplace in the living room.

3. 2012-11-21
   soldstatus
4. 2007-03-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$581/yr (+$48/mo · 65.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$895
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable loss: −$194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $2,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $184,500 OCAOR
• 2012-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $895 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.