Pierce Plan · Conroe, TX 77378

$220,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,619 sqft · SingleFamily · 687 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Central great room
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 686 days

Tags

• CENTRAL GREAT ROOM
• EXPANSIVE GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• COVERED FIRST-FLOOR PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $220,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,733.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-480/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 687 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 687 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,733
• List price: $220,990
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Kinglet Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,619 (0%)	3mo	$239,290	$148	94
500 Kinglet Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-2%)	2mo	$235,000	$149	86
10730 Sora Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-2%)	3mo	$242,910	$154	82
10778 Sora Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,570 (-3%)	1mo	$243,110	$155	81
10703 Sora Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-7%)	2mo	$241,440	$160	78
10719 Sora Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-7%)	3mo	$236,520	$156	77
10726 Sora Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-7%)	2mo	$235,300	$156	77
10723 Sora Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,780 (+10%)	4mo	$248,210	$139	77
10747 Sora Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-7%)	1mo	$239,140	$158	75
410 Kinglet Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,812 (+12%)	3mo	$251,440	$139	75
962 Oak Falls Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (-9%)	4mo	$235,000	$159	48
968 Oak Lynn Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-12%)	3mo	$215,000	$150	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-46,158
• Equity at exit: $36,341

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-59,686
• Equity at exit: $21,074

Cash invested: $68,245 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,656/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,132

Max offer price $237,947

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,933
• Closing costs: $7,312
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,990 Active 687 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,990 Active 686 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,990 Active 685 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,990 Active 684 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,990 Active 682 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,990 Active 678 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,990 Active 677 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,990 Active 676 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,990 Active 673 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $220,990 Active 672 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $217,990 Active 671 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $217,990 Active 670 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $217,990 Active 669 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    price $217,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

15. 2026-03-03
    price $214,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

16. 2026-01-29
    price $211,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

17. 2025-04-03
    price $241,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

18. 2024-09-18
    price $240,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

19. 2024-08-01
    listed $239,990 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,653
• − Property taxes: −$3,656
• − Insurance: −$1,219
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − Depreciation: −$7,090
• Taxable loss: −$4,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good roof, exterior, flooring, and systems. The kitchen and bathrooms could benefit from some updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and can add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and can add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $217,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $214,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $211,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $240,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Listed $239,990 Zillow