2703 Pine Hill Rd · Forestdale, AL 35005

$123,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1961 0.93 ac lot Est $160k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity. Beautiful generous lot with mature shade trees.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Mature shade trees
• 0.93 acre lot

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• MATURE SHADE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Adamsville subdivision; Driving directions available
• HOA & community: Garbage fee assessed quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Driveway parking; One carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Storm door noted as an energy/green feature; Internet service availability unknown
• Home design: Existing property; Four-sided brick construction; Basement foundation
• Construction: 4-side brick exterior; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.93 acres; No pool, patio, decks, garden/patio, or waterfront; Property in a flood-free area

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level; Second kitchen in the basement; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level; Bonus, den/family and office/study located in the basement
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (located in the basement)
• Heating & cooling: No heat; No central air
• Interior features: Finished full basement with concrete block construction; Brick woodburning fireplace in the den; Ceilings: other (see remarks); No loft; No split level or split foyer; Has laundry
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#367 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 49% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 6% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,452 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,080
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Blackmon Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+2%)	15mo	$155,000	$110	66
3008 Crestlane Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-0%)	13mo	$160,250	$116	59
3031 Summit Ridge Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+9%)	6mo	$175,000	$116	57
405 Blackmon Cir	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,247 (-10%)	1mo	$99,900	$80	56
701 Hillcrest Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,313 (-5%)	24mo	$200,000	$152	54
129 Baggett Hills Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+3%)	17mo	$74,000	$52	49
2707 Forestdale Blvd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+5%)	16mo	$105,000	$72	48
2802 Madison St	0.18mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,538 (+11%)	22mo	$185,000	$120	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-13,379
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,361
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35005

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $139	+0% $104	+5% $69	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $62	+0% $104	+5% $146	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $135	base $104	+0.5pp $72	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3716 Main St Adamsville, AL	2.0	1.0	1058	$896	$0.85	17d	1	1.00mi
3 Russell Dr Adamsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1028	$875	$0.85	20d	1	1.23mi
4213 Kendall Ave Adamsville, AL	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,225	$0.98	4d	1	1.37mi
328 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,100	$0.75	44d	1	1.48mi
308 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,250	$0.85	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $123,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $123,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $123,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable loss: −$845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$203
• After-tax cash flow: $1,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Forestdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #21236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestdale, AL
• City population: 17,027
• Population (ZIP): 8,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 38% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.72%
• Current HPI: 237.5788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $123,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.