22558 Serviceberry Branch Ct · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$235,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · Land · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 6,052 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $229k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the charm and comfort of 22558 Serviceberry Branch Court, New Caney, TX — a beautifully designed new construction home built by M/I Homes. This thoughtfully crafted home offers 1,330 square feet of well-planned living space, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a owner's bedroom located in a quiet corner of the home. Step inside to discover an inviting open-concept living space that seamlessly connects key areas of the single-story home, creating a warm and functional environment perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The quality of design is evident throughout, from the carefully selected finishes to the smart layout that maximizes every square foot. Key Features: Front-loading 2-car garage Covered patio Bay window in owner's bedroom This home is nestled within a welcoming community that offers a family-friendly atmosphere and convenient proximity to parks, making it easy to enjoy outdoor activities and green spaces. The surrounding area provides a pleasant setting with well-maintained streets and a strong sense of community among neighbors. Whether you are relaxing in the comfort of the owner's bedroom or gathering with loved ones in the open living area, this home delivers a balance of style, comfort, and practical design that is perfect for today's lifestyle. MLS# 15278321

Key facts

• 6,052 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($375/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Woodbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $190,962 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,892
• List price: $235,990
• Delta: 3.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,529
• Equity at exit: $35,187

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-54,103
• Equity at exit: $20,404

Cash invested: $66,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,238
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,870

Max offer price $235,990

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $98	+0% $31	+5% $-36	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-44	+0% $31	+5% $107	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $91	base $31	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,998
• Closing costs: $7,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	26d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,990 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,990 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,990 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,990 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $235,990 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,990 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,990 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,990 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,990 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,990 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,990 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,990 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,990 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,990 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    price $240,990 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $244,990 1333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1333 chars)

    Experience the charm and comfort of 22558 Serviceberry Branch Court, New Caney, TX — a beautifully designed new construction home built by M/I Homes. This thoughtfully crafted home offers 1,330 square feet of well-planned living space, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a owner's bedroom located in a quiet corner of the home. Step inside to discover an inviting open-concept living space that seamlessly connects key areas of the single-story home, creating a warm and functional environment perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The quality of design is evident throughout, from the carefully selected finishes to the smart layout that maximizes every square foot. Key Features: Front-loading 2-car garage Covered patio Bay window in owner's bedroom This home is nestled within a welcoming community that offers a family-friendly atmosphere and convenient proximity to parks, making it easy to enjoy outdoor activities and green spaces. The surrounding area provides a pleasant setting with well-maintained streets and a strong sense of community among neighbors. Whether you are relaxing in the comfort of the owner's bedroom or gathering with loved ones in the open living area, this home delivers a balance of style, comfort, and practical design that is perfect for today's lifestyle. MLS# 15278321

19. 2026-05-18
    price $244,990 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION! READY IN JUNE! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings.

20. 2026-04-07
    listed $248,990 Active 1333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1333 chars)

    Experience the charm and comfort of 22558 Serviceberry Branch Court, New Caney, TX — a beautifully designed new construction home built by M/I Homes. This thoughtfully crafted home offers 1,330 square feet of well-planned living space, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a owner's bedroom located in a quiet corner of the home. Step inside to discover an inviting open-concept living space that seamlessly connects key areas of the single-story home, creating a warm and functional environment perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The quality of design is evident throughout, from the carefully selected finishes to the smart layout that maximizes every square foot. Key Features: Front-loading 2-car garage Covered patio Bay window in owner's bedroom This home is nestled within a welcoming community that offers a family-friendly atmosphere and convenient proximity to parks, making it easy to enjoy outdoor activities and green spaces. The surrounding area provides a pleasant setting with well-maintained streets and a strong sense of community among neighbors. Whether you are relaxing in the comfort of the owner's bedroom or gathering with loved ones in the open living area, this home delivers a balance of style, comfort, and practical design that is perfect for today's lifestyle. MLS# 15278321

21. 2026-04-06
    listed $248,990 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION! READY IN JUNE! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,319 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,221/yr (+$268/mo · 293.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,219
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,865
• Taxable loss: −$3,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $1,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $248,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Listed $248,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.