4418 Alston St · Crozet, VA 22932

$425,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2021 1,742 sqft lot $183/sqft · 33% below area Est $634k · 33% under $128/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Decorated Model Now Open! Welcome to Pleasant Green. Set among Blue Ridge Mountain views, parks and walking trails, yet minutes from downtown Crozet, Pleasant Green shines as a charming community that’s a quick walk or drive from it all. Sought after amenities like a central gathering house for neighbors, a community garden to grow seasonal fruits and vegetables, and storage for your tools. Base Pricing for To Be Built Monroe with Rooftop Terrace - Select your own options/upgrades! No more than 2 parties, not to exceed 10 people in model home at any time. Masks are required, visitors should maintain a 6' distance, and all visitors will be asked to sanitize their hands before entering. Similar photos.

Key facts

• $128 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property address: 4418 Alston St
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $128; Association covers management, common area maintenance, clubhouse, insurance, playground, reserve fund, snow removal, and trash; Community features include sidewalks and a clubhouse, picnic area, and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage faces front) with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; Electric in garage
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Deadbolts
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground electric; Cable available
• Home design: Attached townhouse with 2+ common walls; Three or more levels; Monroe model with rooftop terrace
• Construction: HardiPlank exterior; Stick-built construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Composite deck; Patio; Wood fencing (partial fenced); Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on third level; Additional bedroom on third level; Loft on fourth level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom on third level; Bathrooms located on first, third (including primary), and third levels; half bath on second level
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heat pump heating; Ductless heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Loft; Recessed lighting; Insulated, low-emissivity tilt-in vinyl windows with screens
• Laundry & utility: Stacked laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-575 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in Crozet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#48 in VA, #1,158 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Crozet Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 514 students, 18% FRL); Joseph T. Henley Middle (math 82% / reading 89%, grade A+, #10 of 342 statewide, top 3%, 808 students, 13% FRL); Western Albemarle High (math 72% / reading 92%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 1,158 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,649 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $634,089
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -32.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2981 Rambling Brook Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,464 (+6%)	4mo	$574,990	$233	73
2969 Rambling Brook Ln	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,105 (-10%)	4mo	$534,990	$254	71
3005 Rambling Brook Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,464 (+6%)	4mo	$599,000	$243	71
3023 Rambling Brook Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,105 (-10%)	3mo	$592,695	$282	71
2879 Rambling Brook Ln	0.11mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,553 (+10%)	4mo	$635,000	$249	70
3071 Rambling Brook Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,464 (+6%)	1mo	$601,285	$244	68
3065 Rambling Brook Ln	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,078 (-11%)	6mo	$524,990	$253	68
3053 Rambling Brook Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,105 (-10%)	6mo	$651,225	$309	68
6306 Freedom Blvd	0.51mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,311 (-1%)	4mo	$629,000	$272	67
3035 Rambling Brook Ln	0.36mi	3/3.5	2,554 (+10%)	1mo	$621,985	$244	66
5518 Hill Top St	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,372 (+2%)	2mo	$545,000	$230	55
145 Grayrock Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,026 (-13%)	2mo	$525,000	$259	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-105,518
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-139,065
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22932

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,053/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$128
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,635

Max offer price $323,338

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-335	-5% $-455	+0% $-575	+5% $-696	+10% $-816
Rent	-10% $-805	-5% $-690	+0% $-575	+5% $-461	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-361	-0.5pp $-467	base $-575	+0.5pp $-686	+1.0pp $-798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5981 McComb St Crozet, VA	3.0	3.0	2098	$2,545	$1.21	45d	1	0.03mi
5990 Cling Ln Crozet, VA	3.0	3.5	1725	$2,700	$1.57	23d	1	0.16mi
6088 Rothwell Ln Crozet, VA	4.0	4.0	2856	$3,500	$1.23	23d	1	0.40mi
1241 Old Trail Dr Crozet, VA	4.0	3.5	2322	$3,300	$1.42	15d	1	0.91mi
372 Joliet Ct Crozet, VA	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,250	$1.39	23d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $128 · $1,536/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 805-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $425,000 Active 805-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   historical $425,000 805-char remark
4. 2021-03-30
   soldstatus $358,545 719-char remark

   Show marketing remark (719 chars)

   New Decorated Model Now Open! Welcome to Pleasant Green. Set among Blue Ridge Mountain views, parks and walking trails, yet minutes from downtown Crozet, Pleasant Green shines as a charming community that’s a quick walk or drive from it all. Sought after amenities like a central gathering house for neighbors, a community garden to grow seasonal fruits and vegetables, and storage for your tools. Base Pricing for To Be Built Monroe with Rooftop Terrace - Select your own options/upgrades! No more than 2 parties, not to exceed 10 people in model home at any time. Masks are required, visitors should maintain a 6' distance, and all visitors will be asked to sanitize their hands before entering. Similar photos.

5. 2020-09-23
   listed $358,545 719-char remark

   Show marketing remark (719 chars)

   New Decorated Model Now Open! Welcome to Pleasant Green. Set among Blue Ridge Mountain views, parks and walking trails, yet minutes from downtown Crozet, Pleasant Green shines as a charming community that’s a quick walk or drive from it all. Sought after amenities like a central gathering house for neighbors, a community garden to grow seasonal fruits and vegetables, and storage for your tools. Base Pricing for To Be Built Monroe with Rooftop Terrace - Select your own options/upgrades! No more than 2 parties, not to exceed 10 people in model home at any time. Masks are required, visitors should maintain a 6' distance, and all visitors will be asked to sanitize their hands before entering. Similar photos.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,053 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,053 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$4,053
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − HOA: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$14,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Crozet

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #1158

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crozet, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• City population: 9,148
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,148
• Household income: $115,545
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 168.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.03%
• Current HPI: 254.0549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+19.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $430,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-07 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $425,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $425,000 CAAR
• 2021-03-30 Sold (MLS) $358,545 CAAR
• 2020-09-23 Listed $358,545 CAAR

Property tax history

+44.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,053 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.