89 SEA FERN DRIVE Plan · Leesburg, FL 34788

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 420 Days on market

Est $99k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Utility room
• Extra den
• Wide open floorplan

Tags

• WIDE OPEN FLOORPLAN
• EXTRA DEN
• TRADITIONAL FRONT PORCH
• LARGE KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed for $149,900

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home: 89 SEA FERN DRIVE; Located at 10701 US Highway 441, Leesburg, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 1,456 (living area figure provided)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 420 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 420 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.30%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,008
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
261 Kelou Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-6%)	5mo	$127,500	$93	73
244 Kelou Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-9%)	9mo	$90,000	$68	65
238 Kelou Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,266 (-13%)	5mo	$65,000	$51	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-563
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $29,311
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34788

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,174/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32818 Lake Square Ct #10 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.57mi
32635 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,950	$1.68	23d	1	0.59mi
32629 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	0.59mi
32629 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	17d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 420 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 419 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 418 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 417 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 415 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 411 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 410 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 409 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $144,900 Active 406 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 405 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 404 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 403 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 402 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,174
• − Insurance: −$2,227
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $2,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$531
• After-tax cash flow: $3,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 406.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.07%
• Current HPI: 273.6616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B