2420 Moon River Loop · Las Cruces, NM 88007

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1998 7,841 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Backyard Living Starts Here. 2420 Moon River Loop offers the space, comfort, buyers are looking for. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features fresh interior paint, newer window AC units, and a swamp cooler and furnace that have been maintained and winterized for confidence moving forward. Step outside and you will see what makes this property special. A large covered porch overlooks a beautifully kept backyard that feels like your own personal escape. Perfect for quiet mornings, evening unwinding, or hosting friends. Located near schools and daily conveniences, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in one smart package.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Large covered porch

Tags

• NEW WINDOW AC UNITS
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,862
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,300
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88007

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1048 McFie Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	21d	1	1.21mi
2074 Briarwood Ln Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1581	$1,700	$1.08	44d	1	1.30mi
2040 Carlyle Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,595	$0.86	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Active 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (633 chars)

   Backyard Living Starts Here. 2420 Moon River Loop offers the space, comfort, buyers are looking for. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features fresh interior paint, newer window AC units, and a swamp cooler and furnace that have been maintained and winterized for confidence moving forward. Step outside and you will see what makes this property special. A large covered porch overlooks a beautifully kept backyard that feels like your own personal escape. Perfect for quiet mornings, evening unwinding, or hosting friends. Located near schools and daily conveniences, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in one smart package.

2. 2026-03-23
   price $168,000 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (633 chars)

   Backyard Living Starts Here. 2420 Moon River Loop offers the space, comfort, buyers are looking for. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features fresh interior paint, newer window AC units, and a swamp cooler and furnace that have been maintained and winterized for confidence moving forward. Step outside and you will see what makes this property special. A large covered porch overlooks a beautifully kept backyard that feels like your own personal escape. Perfect for quiet mornings, evening unwinding, or hosting friends. Located near schools and daily conveniences, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in one smart package.

3. 2026-03-05
   status Pending 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (633 chars)

   Backyard Living Starts Here. 2420 Moon River Loop offers the space, comfort, buyers are looking for. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features fresh interior paint, newer window AC units, and a swamp cooler and furnace that have been maintained and winterized for confidence moving forward. Step outside and you will see what makes this property special. A large covered porch overlooks a beautifully kept backyard that feels like your own personal escape. Perfect for quiet mornings, evening unwinding, or hosting friends. Located near schools and daily conveniences, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in one smart package.

4. 2026-02-26
   listed $154,000 Active 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (633 chars)

   Backyard Living Starts Here. 2420 Moon River Loop offers the space, comfort, buyers are looking for. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features fresh interior paint, newer window AC units, and a swamp cooler and furnace that have been maintained and winterized for confidence moving forward. Step outside and you will see what makes this property special. A large covered porch overlooks a beautifully kept backyard that feels like your own personal escape. Perfect for quiet mornings, evening unwinding, or hosting friends. Located near schools and daily conveniences, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in one smart package.

5. 1998-09-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 36.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $147
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35
• After-tax cash flow: $2,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• City population: 131,421
• Population (ZIP): 25,750

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 34% Two or more races 19% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 30% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.30%
• Current HPI: 205.0841
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Relisted — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $168,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-05 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-26 Listed $154,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1998-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $982 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.