Chandler Plan · Summerdale, AL 36580

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy happy hour on the Chandler's covered back patio. Inside, the sprawling kitchen island overlooks the great room. In the primary suite, dual sinks and a walk-in closet simplify busy mornings.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered back patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPRAWLING KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 19968 Jambalaya Dr, Summerdale AL 36580; Status: Active; New construction inventory type: Plan; Plan name: Chandler; Last modified: 2026-06-07
• Financial info: List price $309,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1648

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Chandler)

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,624.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($160/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Summerdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#384 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 44%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,679 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16212 Eden St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-5%)	1mo	$263,490	$168	87
20045 Eden St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-5%)	3mo	$257,189	$164	87
16194 Eden St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-5%)	2mo	$259,490	$165	86
20113 Clover Field Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-5%)	1mo	$259,490	$165	84
16132 Eden St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-5%)	4mo	$254,273	$162	81
16068 Clover Field Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-5%)	4mo	$255,990	$163	80
16162 Eden St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+5%)	2mo	$265,990	$154	78
20079 Clover Field Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+5%)	1mo	$266,490	$154	77
20003 Clover Field Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+5%)	4mo	$252,285	$146	76
16100 Eden St	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+5%)	4mo	$245,990	$142	74
16180 Eden St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-14%)	1mo	$250,990	$178	70
16118 Eden St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,413 (-14%)	4mo	$230,990	$163	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $111,086
• Equity at exit: $203,593

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $321,722
• Equity at exit: $403,664

Cash invested: $75,215 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36580

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,029/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,350

Max offer price $268,624

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $106	+0% $13	+5% $-79	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-80	+0% $13	+5% $107	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $82	base $13	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,156
• Closing costs: $8,059
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14843 Dayton Cir Foley, AL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,400	$1.34	15d	1	1.45mi
14836 Dayton Cir Foley, AL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,400	$1.34	23d	1	1.46mi
14654 Dayton Cir Foley, AL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,300	$1.28	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,990 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $299,990 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,990 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,990 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 195-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $309,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,047
• − Property taxes: −$4,029
• − Insurance: −$1,343
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$7,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Summerdale

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #384
• US rank: #21872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Summerdale, AL
• City population: 7,025
• Population (ZIP): 7,025

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.97%
• Current HPI: 288.8697
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B