Plan 1 Plan · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$522,667

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,752 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

$25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful two-story design features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, with a large dining area and expansive great room that are ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A walk-in pantry adds convenience and extra storage, while the luxurious primary suite provides a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Two story design
• Expansive great room

Tags

• TWO STORY DESIGN
• LARGE DINING AREA
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $522,667 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $573,879.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $523k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($491k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,762 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.35%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $573,879
• List price: $522,667
• Delta: -8.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12080 Prades Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	0mo	$542,200	$309	95
12044 Mircado Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-2%)	1mo	$512,185	$297	81
12065 Tiresias Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-5%)	3mo	$550,000	$331	75
4255 Choteau Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,713 (-2%)	2mo	$570,000	$333	69
12219 Alamosa	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,906 (+9%)	2mo	$515,000	$270	66
12274 Greenfinch Way	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,850 (+6%)	2mo	$537,973	$291	60
12233 Habitat Way	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+3%)	2mo	$555,000	$308	59
11704 Village Pond Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-4%)	2mo	$440,000	$261	57
12320 Pawcatuck Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (+6%)	2mo	$560,000	$300	49
11794 Bagota Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-14%)	4mo	$507,500	$337	40
12270 Greenfinch Way	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,007 (+15%)	2mo	$530,227	$264	40
11786 Socrates Way	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,932 (+10%)	2mo	$550,000	$285	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $212,925
• Equity at exit: $516,996

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $697,685
• Equity at exit: $1,114,921

Cash invested: $160,686 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,009
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$717 /mo · $8,608/yr
• Insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $-1,520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,052

Max offer price $353,914

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,124	-5% $-1,322	+0% $-1,520	+5% $-1,718	+10% $-1,917
Rent	-10% $-1,767	-5% $-1,644	+0% $-1,520	+5% $-1,397	+10% $-1,273
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,231	-0.5pp $-1,374	base $-1,520	+0.5pp $-1,669	+1.0pp $-1,820

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,470
• Closing costs: $17,216
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	16d	1	0.26mi
4013 Trento Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,225	$1.36	17d	1	0.42mi
11965 Pericles Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.56mi
11832 Stoney Ridge Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2019	$2,695	$1.33	12d	1	0.76mi
11795 Corino Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,880	$1.44	0d	1	0.76mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	45d	1	0.86mi
11688 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,499	$1.98	13d	1	0.90mi
11684 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,529	$2.00	23d	1	0.92mi
11664 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,199	$2.09	0d	1	0.93mi
4071 Quorra Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,279	$2.05	0d	1	0.93mi
11641 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,189	$1.99	45d	1	0.97mi
11643 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,169	$2.07	25d	1	0.97mi
11617 Venitia Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,249	$2.03	9d	1	1.05mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $522,667 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $522,667 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $522,667 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $522,667 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $522,667 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $522,667 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $522,667 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $522,667 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $522,667 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $522,667 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $522,667 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $522,667 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $522,667 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $522,667 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $522,667 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $522,667 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This beautiful two-story design features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, with a large dining area and expansive great room that are ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A walk-in pantry adds convenience and extra storage, while the luxurious primary suite provides a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet.

17. 2026-03-30
    listed $542,200 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This beautiful two-story design features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, with a large dining area and expansive great room that are ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A walk-in pantry adds convenience and extra storage, while the luxurious primary suite provides a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,146
• − Property taxes: −$8,608
• − Insurance: −$2,869
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,003
• − Management: −$3,003
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$16,695
• Taxable loss: −$29,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,982
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $522,667 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Listed $542,200 Zillow