22010 Vernazza Bend Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

$286,500

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bailey floor plan offers 1,882 square feet of well-designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This spacious single-story layout is ideal for growing families, combining open-concept living with thoughtful functionality throughout. The heart of the home features a modern kitchen that flows seamlessly into the dining and family room, creating an inviting atmosphere for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a generous island, ample counter space, and abundant cabinetry, making it as practical as it is stylish.

Key facts

• Private owner suite
• Ample counter space
• Generous island

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PRIVATE OWNER SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $286,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2630 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,990
• List price: $286,500
• Delta: -13.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22006 Vernazza Bend Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+8%)	3mo	$335,990	$165	78
22026 Messina Springs Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+8%)	2mo	$329,990	$162	77
22011 Vernazza Bend Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-10%)	2mo	$299,990	$177	76
21918 Messina Springs Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-10%)	1mo	$289,990	$171	73
21930 Messina Springs Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (+8%)	2mo	$329,990	$162	72
21614 Carbonari Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,875 (-0%)	0mo	$272,990	$146	68
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (-3%)	4mo	$298,000	$164	64
21726 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+8%)	0mo	$309,390	$152	61
22242 Scarlino Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (+4%)	2mo	$274,900	$141	56
22018 Matera Vista Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,915 (+2%)	1mo	$284,990	$149	54
19062 Cetara Villa Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,915 (+2%)	4mo	$299,990	$157	52
22030 Matera Vista Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,915 (+2%)	4mo	$299,990	$157	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-83,069
• Equity at exit: $49,650

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-129,547
• Equity at exit: $28,791

Cash invested: $93,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 170 active · 97 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $315,495 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2630
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,658 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,995/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,084

Max offer price $284,269

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-222	+0% $-337	+5% $-452	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-442	+0% $-337	+5% $-232	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-252	base $-337	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,248
• Closing costs: $9,990
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	184d	1	0.45mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	84d	1	0.48mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.48mi
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	128d	1	1.18mi
22630 August Crow Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$1,826	$0.82	7d	1	1.20mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,126	$1.33	0d	7	1.22mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2069	$3,170	$1.53	0d	1	1.25mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	140d	1	1.35mi
22719 Tabberts Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,150	$1.14	3d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D.R. Horton
• HOA & community: Association: REALMANAGE ONSITE ELEVATEDAnnual association fee of $1,621

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionOne- or two-story (specific stories not provided)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and vinyl siding constructionSlab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardLot with other features

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island5 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $286,500 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $286,500 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $286,500 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $286,500 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $286,500 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $286,500 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $286,500 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $286,500 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $286,500 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $286,500 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $286,500 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $286,500 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $286,500 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $286,500 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $286,500 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $286,500 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $286,500 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $286,500 Active 105 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $286,500 Active 104 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $286,500 Active 103 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $286,500 Active 102 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $286,500 Active 101 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $286,500 Active 100 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $286,500 Active 99 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $286,500 Active 98 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $286,500 Active 97 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $286,500 Active 96 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $286,500 Active 95 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $286,500 Active 94 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $292,500 Active 93 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $292,500 Active 92 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $292,500 Active 91 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $292,500 Active 90 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $292,500 Active 89 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $292,500 Active 88 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $292,500 Active 87 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $292,500 Active 86 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $292,500 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $292,500 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $292,500 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $292,500 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $292,500 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $292,500 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $292,500 Active 79 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $292,500 Active 78 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $292,500 Active 77 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $292,500 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $292,500 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $292,500 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $292,500 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,653
• − Property taxes: −$4,995
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,551
• − Management: −$2,551
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,687
• Taxable loss: −$9,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,359
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in the Bailey floor plan is in good condition with a spacious layout and modern amenities. It is move-in ready with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D.R. Horton
• HOA & community: Association: REALMANAGE ONSITE ELEVATEDAnnual association fee of $1,621

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionOne- or two-story (specific stories not provided)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and vinyl siding constructionSlab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardLot with other features

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island5 total rooms

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-07-08 Listed $295,000 HARMLS