Is 2221 Johnny Cash Dr in Fort Worth, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.9% cap rate and $-395/mo modeled cash flow at a $339,730 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2221 Johnny Cash Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,577/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.82

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +7.7/30.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.1/5.0
Schools +2.7/10.0
1% rule +2.6/10.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$339,730

2221 Johnny Cash Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76036

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,502 sqft lot 2-car garage $167/sqft · 18% below area Est $417k · 18% under $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton is excited to serve as your Home Builder in the fabulous New Longhorn Estates Community in South Fort Worth and Crowley ISD! The single-story Kingston floorplan Elevation B, with an estimated Summer completion, features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Designed for modern living, this home offers an open-concept layout connecting the family room, dining area, and chef-inspired kitchen, complete with a large seating island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, built-in microwave, and a wide pantry. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and a bathroom with a wide quartz-topped vanity and a 5-foot oversized shower.

Key facts

Granite countertops
Gas range
Open-concept layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-395 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (16.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (24.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $258k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: S H Crowley El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 512 students, 66% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1275 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,723 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.76% ✗
Cap rate: 4.90%
Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $416,675
List price: $339,730
Delta: -18.47%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4320 Valley Brook Dr	0.04mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,118 (+4%)	0mo	$339,990	$161	82
9221 Union Pacific Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,121 (+4%)	5mo	$344,990	$163	80
9228 Wild Stampede Way	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (-3%)	11mo	$334,990	$170	79
10613 Dripping Creek Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,208 (+9%)	3mo	$369,960	$168	78
2808 Coventry Rd	1.08mi	4/2.0	2,162 (+6%)	3mo	$460,000	$213	52
1137 Colina Vista Ln	0.98mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,221 (+9%)	14mo	$670,000	$302	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.6%
Equity multiple: 0.14×
Total profit: $-81,958
Equity at exit: $50,655

10-year hold

IRR: -24.3%
Equity multiple: -0.17×
Total profit: $-110,877
Equity at exit: $29,374

Cash invested: $95,124 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 6 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $311,245 ($185/sqft)
Median days on market: 64 d
This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +10.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76036

Home prices YoY: -25.2%
Rents YoY: 2.3%
Active inventory: 1275
Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,577 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,096/yr
Insurance: −$142
HOA: −$83
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
Net cashflow: $-395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,077

Max offer price $282,605

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-277	+0% $-395	+5% $-512	+10% $-630
Rent	-10% $-598	-5% $-497	+0% $-395	+5% $-293	+10% $-191
Rate	-1.0pp $-224	-0.5pp $-308	base $-395	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $84,932
Closing costs: $10,192
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6629 Coyote Valley Trl Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,250	$1.36	0d	1	0.02mi
4932 Water Lily Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,595	$1.40	62d	1	1.42mi
5029 Chital Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	3.0	2125	$2,500	$1.18	12d	1	1.45mi
5021 Chital Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,200	$1.43	0d	1	1.46mi
5041 Wellborn Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,300	$1.51	38d	1	1.47mi
5020 Cervinae Rd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.5	1947	$2,550	$1.31	70d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Easements for utilitiesMinerals retained by developer
Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA financing
HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee (management fees included)HOA management: VCM, Inc.Community features: community pool, park, playground, jogging/bike path, sidewalks, curbs

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage with two covered spacesGarage faces front; 2-car single door
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas available with individual gas meterIndividual water meterCable availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSidewalks, curbs, concrete
Home design: Single family residenceOne storyNew construction (incomplete)Smart home features included
Construction: Brick and frame constructionComposition roofSlab foundationYear built 2026
Exterior features: Covered rear porchCovered porch(es)Wood fencing in back yardSprinkler systemFew treesLandscapedSubdivision lot (interior lot)Community mailbox

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveWater line to refrigeratorBuilt-in cabinetsWalk-in pantry
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on entry level with separate shower and walk-in closetThree additional bedrooms on entry level
Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air (electric)Tankless water heaterGas water heater
Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenGranite countersKitchen islandPantryCable TV availableSmart home systemVented exhaust fan
Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room / separate utility room

HOA detail $83/mo · $996/yr

Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $339,730 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $339,730 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $339,730 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $339,730 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $339,730 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $339,730 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $339,730 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $339,730 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $339,730 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $339,730 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $339,730 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-22

pricedays on market $339,730 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $345,730 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $345,730 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $345,730 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $345,730 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $345,730 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $345,730 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $345,730 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $345,730 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $345,730 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $345,730 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $345,730 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-09

pricedays on market $345,730 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $346,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $346,990 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $346,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $346,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $346,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $346,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $346,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $346,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $346,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $346,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $346,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $346,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $346,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $346,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $346,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $346,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $346,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $346,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $346,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $346,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $346,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $346,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $346,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $346,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $346,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $346,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,927
− Mortgage interest: −$19,030
− Property taxes: −$5,096
− Insurance: −$1,699
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,474
− Management: −$2,474
− HOA: −$996
− Depreciation: −$9,883
Taxable loss: −$10,725

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,574
After-tax cash flow: $-2,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,170–$30,510 screening

This single-story home in Longhorn Estates is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading or replacing appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract renters and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary S H Crowley El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Richard Allie Middle F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Crowley H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crowley ISD
NCES district ID: 4815910
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $59,810
Composite: 25.04/100
National rank: #7549
State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Fort Worth

Score: 80/100
State rank: #49
US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Tarrant County · 2,380,417 people
City population: 911,619
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 36,044
Household income: $97,973
Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
Current HPI: 238.6365
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-01 Price Changed $346,990 NTREIS
2026-05-30 Listed $350,730 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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