21 Stillman Village Rd · North Pownal, VT 12138

$35,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 909 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1793 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two bedroom one bath old style home needs total rehab, sold "as is". Poor Condition

Key facts

• Stream flows
• 20 x 16 barn
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• STREAM FLOWS
• 20 X 16 BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Berlin Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #412 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($249 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1793 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1793 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.24%
• DSCR: 6.84
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.57×
• Total profit: $86,341
• Equity at exit: $32,431

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.03×
• Total profit: $201,946
• Equity at exit: $69,938

Cash invested: $10,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12138

• Home prices YoY: 9.0%
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$45 /mo · $540/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $35,999

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,000
• Closing costs: $1,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-16
   soldstatus $33,000
2. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-16
   price $35,999
4. 2025-09-26
   price $40,000
5. 2025-09-04
   price $46,999
6. 2025-08-15
   listed $50,000 Active
7. 2007-10-12
   soldstatus $10,100 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   This two bedroom one bath old style home needs total rehab, sold "as is". Poor Condition

8. 2007-07-09
   historical 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   This two bedroom one bath old style home needs total rehab, sold "as is". Poor Condition

9. 2007-06-07
   listed $14,900 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   This two bedroom one bath old style home needs total rehab, sold "as is". Poor Condition

10. 2005-10-28
    soldstatus $47,940

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,017
• − Property taxes: −$540
• − Insurance: −$846
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − Depreciation: −$1,047
• Taxable income: $12,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,070
• After-tax cash flow: $9,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,335
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #3455
• State rank: #412 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Pownal

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,826

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.77%
• Current HPI: 324.5137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-31.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-05 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $35,999 Global MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $40,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $46,999 Global MLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $50,000 Global MLS
• 2007-10-12 Sold (MLS) $10,100 Global MLS
• 2007-07-09 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2007-06-07 Listed $14,900 Global MLS
• 2005-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $47,940 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,111 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.