295 Grove St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1923 3,920 sqft lot Est $194k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This cozy residence features 910 sqft. with 3 bedrooms a sizable full bathroom and first floor half bathroom. Newly updated dinning room, kitchen, and living room have an open flow and airy feel. Enjoy all new 3/4 inch hardwood flooring and windows throughout, along with new hot water tank and furnace. All new electrical and plumbing throughout. Brand new concrete driveway adds to curb appeal. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood just a quick drive to all the amenities. Pack your bags and settle into this quaint gem today!

Key facts

• New furnace
• New plumbing
• New hot water tank

Tags

• NEWLY UPDATED DINING ROOM
• NEW HOT WATER TANK
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW PLUMBING
• BRAND NEW CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $170k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,299 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,830
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Bannard Ave	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (+7%)	6mo	$168,500	$173	45
30 Bannard Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+13%)	2mo	$220,000	$213	41
236 Newell Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	999 (+10%)	16mo	$237,000	$237	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,456
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $37,789
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,958/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $245	+0% $197	+5% $149	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $131	+0% $197	+5% $263	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $240	base $197	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1974 Newell Ave Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	675	$1,185	$1.76	4d	3	0.58mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	0.62mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	3d	9	0.98mi
268-360 Hinds St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	500	$1,214	$2.43	13d	1	1.05mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	3d	1	1.07mi
705 Sandra Ln North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	3d	9	1.50mi
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2026-03-07
   historical
4. 2026-03-03
   historical
5. 2026-03-02
   historical
6. 2026-02-18
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
8. 2026-01-11
   listed $159,900 Active
9. 2025-01-29
   soldstatus $48,510

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,958 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,958
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+250.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-07 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-18 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $48,510 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,958 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.