4221 Norfolk Ave · Baltimore, MD 21216

$160,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,580 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 1,306 sqft lot Est $253k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4221 Norfolk Ave! Property features 3bdrm 1 full bath and 2 half baths in Forest Park. Make this home yours with some TLC! 3 levels, patio, and parking in the rear! Close to shopping, major roads! Sold in as is condition.

Key facts

• Private parking pad
• Close to schools
• Close to dining

Tags

• PRIVATE PARKING PAD
• PRIME LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (2 spaces); Two total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse
• Construction: Brick construction; Other foundation; Other listed for heating/cooling fuel
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Hot water: Other
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Living area source: Assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,823/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $160k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4008 Bonner Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-1%)	5mo	$145,000	$93	82
4110 Fairview Ave	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,464 (-7%)	0mo	$150,000	$102	82
3849 W Forest Park Ave	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,584 (+0%)	7mo	$55,500	$35	71
4222 Bonner Rd	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-13%)	9mo	$155,000	$112	67
4033 Woodhaven Ave	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,624 (+3%)	9mo	$260,000	$160	65
4125 Fairview Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,792 (+13%)	13mo	$200,000	$112	63
4131 Fairview Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+10%)	13mo	$117,000	$67	63
3816 Bonner Rd	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,554 (-2%)	13mo	$259,500	$167	59
3609 Liberty Heights Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,623 (+3%)	4mo	$269,000	$166	52
4311 Chatham Rd	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,404 (-11%)	6mo	$240,000	$171	45
3601 Hicks Ave	0.48mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,782 (+13%)	12mo	$287,500	$161	31
4402 Haddon Ave	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,814 (+15%)	2mo	$290,000	$160	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,242
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $42,540
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,443/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	11d	1	0.06mi
3914 Maine Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	2127	$1,150	$0.54	43d	1	0.36mi
3904 Gwynns Falls Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,600	$1.47	43d	1	0.71mi
3403 Carlisle Ave Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	11d	1	0.79mi
3508 Grantley Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	23d	1	0.81mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	14d	1	0.93mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,100	$1.40	14d	1	0.93mi
4998 W Forest Park Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	14d	15	0.95mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.04mi
3709 Nortonia Rd #2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1289	$1,450	$1.12	17d	1	1.12mi
3028 Hanlon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,711	$1.43	23d	1	1.14mi
5533 Gwynn Oak Ave Fl 1 Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	43d	1	1.19mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	43d	1	1.23mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	23d	1	1.27mi
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	43d	1	1.29mi
3030 Windsor Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	2124	$1,995	$0.94	4d	1	1.30mi
5136 Oaklawn Rd Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	896	$1,710	$1.91	1d	22	1.30mi
5215 Muth Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	3.0	1205	$2,700	$2.24	14d	1	1.39mi
1633 N Hilton St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	17d	1	1.45mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	23d	1	1.46mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	17d	1	1.47mi
3535 Flannery Ln Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 540-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,443 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,443 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,443
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$123
• After-tax cash flow: $2,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (MLS) $84,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-28 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-09 Price Changed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-14 Price Changed $114,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-22 Price Changed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-10 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,443 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.