186 Shohola Pkwy N Lot 2617 · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$69,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 2011 Fair condition 4,356 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Want to ''GLAMP'' this summer? Look no further!! Beautiful, large, completely stoned lot backing to green area with all the comforts of home at your fingertips!! Fantastic, open, covered deck with TV and comfy furniture. Outside there are multiple covered sitting areas, a shed (perfect for man or woman cave) and great, private views of the green area. Inside this meticulous trailer is one bedroom, bathroom, kitchen/living room combo that sleeps 6. Very pretty oak cabinetry and woodwork throughout. Just a short walk to clubhouse and all amenities!! This property will be sure to please!!

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Open covered deck
• Private views

Tags

• OPEN COVERED DECK
• MULTIPLE COVERED SITTING AREAS
• PRIVATE VIEWS
• OAK CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Trails End subdivision; Directions: Through guard gate to left on Clubhouse; at stop sign go straight ahead.
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with amenities including clubhouse, pool, fitness center, game room, recreation room, meeting room, party room, playground, basketball and shuffleboard courts, restaurant, fishing, and gated community; Annual association fee (listed); One-time association fee (listed); Association fees include electricity, sewer, water, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 3 open parking spaces
• Security: 24-hour security and gated with guard
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer connected; Water connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (one level); Property is attached; Used for recreational purposes
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Aluminum roof; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Private yard with deck and covered patio; Barbecue, gas grill, and fire pit; Cabana and shed(s); Has a view; Sloped, cleared, and secluded lot; Paved road with private maintained access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas oven, Gas range, microwave, and refrigerator; Laminate flooring; One total room (studio/efficiency layout)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 6.1% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shohola El Sch (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B, #249 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 434 students, 40% FRL); Delaware Valley Ms (math 33% / reading 70%, grade C, #109 of 512 statewide, top 22%, 479 students, 38% FRL); Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.67%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $40,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124-126 Beaver Ln Lot 976 and 977	0.25mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+8%)	0mo	$80,000	$114	70
128 Navajo Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+8%)	15mo	$22,000	$31	65
3431 Dakota Ln	0.28mi	1/1.0	700 (+8%)	12mo	$39,750	$57	64
137 Walnut St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+8%)	11mo	$29,900	$43	60
313 Shohola Ln Lot 313	0.35mi	1/1.0	700 (+8%)	13mo	$78,000	$111	60
Lot 4918 Mohican Dr	0.57mi	1/1.0	700 (+8%)	9mo	$45,000	$64	53
226 Shohola Parkway Pkwy Lot 954	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+8%)	12mo	$80,000	$114	53
125 Tribes Dr Lot 5302	0.59mi	1/1.0	700 (+8%)	10mo	$34,000	$49	52
1944 Cardinal Ln Lot 1944	0.34mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-8%)	21mo	$38,000	$63	49
237 Shohola Pkwy N	0.45mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-8%)	17mo	$35,000	$58	47
142 Commanche Dr Lot 5613	0.61mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+8%)	14mo	$40,000	$57	42
133 Crow Ln	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+8%)	17mo	$52,000	$74	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $62,782
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.47×
• Total profit: $165,782
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $818

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $410	+0% $386	+5% $362	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $283	-5% $335	+0% $386	+5% $438	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $404	base $386	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $3,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$928
• After-tax cash flow: $3,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home requires cosmetic repairs to its exterior and interior, with a focus on painting and HVAC maintenance to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Mobile home exterior — Weathered and in poor condition
• Major Mobile home interior — No interior walls/paint visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint mobile home exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Inspect and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Mobile home exterior · Weathered and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Mobile home interior · No interior walls/paint visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint mobile home exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Inspect and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $69,900 PWMLS