Holly Plan · Ruskin, FL 34221

$293,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily · 160 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Holly is a beautiful home design in Cove at Coasterra featuring 1,455 square feet of open-concept living space. The home brings forward 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and more! Through the foyer, you'll find the kitchen overlooks the dining and great room, which leads out to the patio for true indoor/outdoor living, and perfect for enjoying the warm Florida weather. The laundry room sits between the kitchen and 2-car garage. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom, and the primary suite is tucked privately away at the back of the home.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 160 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• KITCHEN OVERLOOKS DINING
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE TUCKED PRIVATELY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8936 Killbarry Ln, Palmetto FL 34221; Status: Active; Last modification: 2026-06-09
• Financial info: List price $293,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (including 2-car garage)
• Home design: New construction inventory: Plan; Plan name: Holly
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,455 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Holly plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $293,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,910.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($29/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $257,417 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,910
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13435 Shellmore Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	3mo	$294,000	$198	89
13420 Shellmore Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	4mo	$329,890	$222	88
13816 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	3mo	$291,364	$200	87
13807 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	3mo	$309,939	$213	87
13415 Shellmore Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	7mo	$309,000	$208	86
9332 Chiswell Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	3mo	$280,250	$193	85
13808 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	2mo	$315,999	$197	72
13412 Shellmore Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+10%)	1mo	$345,500	$215	71
13705 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	3mo	$300,999	$188	70
13427 Shellmore Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+10%)	6mo	$331,000	$206	68
9138 Dalera Cv	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+10%)	3mo	$325,000	$202	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,975
• Equity at exit: $43,823

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-76,667
• Equity at exit: $25,412

Cash invested: $82,295 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,541
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,409/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,571

Max offer price $293,910

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $104	+0% $2	+5% $-99	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-99	+0% $2	+5% $104	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $77	base $2	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,478
• Closing costs: $8,817
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	16d	1	0.96mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	1.36mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	18d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $293,999 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,999 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,999 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,999 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,999 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,999 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,999 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 555-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $293,999 Active 149 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,464
• − Property taxes: −$4,409
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − Depreciation: −$8,550
• Taxable loss: −$4,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,187
• After-tax cash flow: $1,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B