2768 Belle Haven Dr · Dunedin, FL 33763

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1952 0.28 ac lot Est $277k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL, Prime Clearwater Location - sitting on a generous . 27-acre lot with a large backyard and serious upside potential. This property needs TLC and offers the perfect opportunity to rework the layout into a highly desirable 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home. Located just 6 minutes from Downtown Dunedin, 1 minute from US-19 for easy access north and south, and approximately 15 minutes to the Gulf beaches, this is a value-add opportunity in a strong resale area. Bring your vision and contractor — the location, lot size, and potential make this one worth the effort. According to property records, the roof was replaced in 2009 and the HVAC in 2010.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Large backyard
• Strong resale area

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• GENEROUS LOT
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG RESALE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($388/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Dunedin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#15 in FL, #411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garrison-Jones Elementary School (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 593 students, 46% FRL); Palm Harbor Middle School (math 59% / reading 57%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 1,080 students, 37% FRL); Dunedin High School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,203 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 293 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $220k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,531 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,930
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2502 Laurelwood Dr Unit 3B	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,058 (-3%)	6mo	$148,500	$140	55
2584 Laurelwood Dr Unit 15C	0.48mi	2/2.0	980 (-10%)	3mo	$257,000	$262	55
2545 Laurelwood Dr Unit 9C	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,030 (-5%)	16mo	$243,000	$236	49
2589 Redwood Cir	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,198 (+10%)	3mo	$379,900	$317	48
2585 Bay Berry Dr Unit 43D	0.50mi	2/2.0	940 (-13%)	6mo	$244,000	$260	46
2573 Oakleaf Ln Unit 39A	0.56mi	2/2.0	940 (-13%)	3mo	$229,900	$245	45
2612 Sycamore Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,215 (+12%)	16mo	$285,000	$235	44
27466 US Highway 19 N #109	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+15%)	23mo	$85,000	$68	38
2513 Oakleaf Ln Unit 26C	0.69mi	2/2.0	980 (-10%)	12mo	$250,000	$255	38
2489 Oakleaf Ln Unit 21C	0.71mi	2/2.0	960 (-12%)	13mo	$240,000	$250	33
2577 Blackwood Cir	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,220 (+12%)	20mo	$355,000	$291	28
2586 Blackwood Cir	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,220 (+12%)	22mo	$370,000	$303	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,126
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-52,814
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33763

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,540/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $95	+0% $32	+5% $-30	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-42	+0% $32	+5% $107	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $88	base $32	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2780 Cypress Dr Unit A Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	23d	1	0.07mi
2780 Park Dr Unit D 4 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,625	$1.81	26d	1	0.07mi
2307 Cumberland Cir Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,099	$2.40	5d	15	0.15mi
1430 Heather Ridge Blvd #304 Dunedin, FL	1.0	1.0	915	$1,500	$1.64	26d	1	0.44mi
2257 Palmwood Dr Dunedin, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,475	$2.15	6d	1	0.49mi
2524 Alexander Pl Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,410	$2.54	0d	20	0.65mi
28488 U.S. 19 Unit 150 Clearwater, FL	3.0	1.5	990	$1,500	$1.52	13d	1	0.66mi
305 Hammock Pine Blvd #305 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.5	760	$1,500	$1.97	26d	1	0.68mi
2971 Estancia Blvd #321 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	995	$1,975	$1.98	6d	1	0.74mi
3052 Park Ln Unit B Dunedin, FL	2.0	1.0	821	$1,625	$1.98	0d	1	0.75mi
3055 Belcher Rd Dunedin, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,345	$1.79	23d	1	0.75mi
2581 Countryside Blvd Unit 304 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	26d	1	0.87mi
2999 Fieldbrook Pl Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1164	$2,300	$1.98	26d	1	0.90mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	946	$1,675	$1.77	5d	2	0.92mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,700	$2.09	4d	3	0.92mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Unit C205 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	946	$1,700	$1.80	6d	1	0.93mi
2228 Richter St Unit A Dunedin, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,900	$1.55	26d	1	1.02mi
2138 Timber Ln Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$2,800	$2.08	26d	1	1.02mi
2673 Sabal Springs Cir #201 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.5	805	$2,675	$3.32	9d	1	1.02mi
2384 Tahitian Ln #28 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	26d	1	1.04mi
2386 Sumatran Way #14 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	19d	1	1.06mi
1602 Amberlea Dr S Dunedin, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$2,400	$3.31	0d	1	1.07mi
1580 Andover Dr Unit House Dunedin, FL	2.0	1.0	1241	$2,200	$1.77	26d	1	1.10mi
2323 Surrey Ln Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	23d	1	1.12mi
2471 Sumatran Way Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	19d	2	1.13mi
1515 County Road 1 Dunedin, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	719	$1,750	$2.43	9d	1	1.14mi
2713 Countryside Blvd #108 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	4d	1	1.15mi
2561 Forest Run Ct Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,000	$1.75	4d	1	1.21mi
2460 Persian Dr #44 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	6d	1	1.21mi
373 Majesty Dr Unit 373 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	26d	1	1.24mi
2363 Israeli Dr #67 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	1.25mi
2690 Enterprise Rd E Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,463	$2.34	0d	11	1.29mi
3216 Pine Haven Dr Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.5	1316	$3,500	$2.66	0d	1	1.31mi
2262 Swedish Dr #10 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$2,000	$1.79	26d	1	1.32mi
2005 Greenbriar Blvd #1 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	6d	1	1.34mi
2405 Franciscan Dr #23 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,875	$1.34	22d	1	1.43mi
2400 Franciscan Dr #44 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	735	$1,200	$1.63	26d	1	1.43mi
25350 US Highway 19 N Clearwater, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,732	$1.98	0d	34	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 1993-09-01
   soldstatus $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,540
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$806
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dunedin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #411

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 38,171
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,146
• Household income: $54,794
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 753.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -439.90%
• Current HPI: 265.3099
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.63%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+276.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,540 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.