17238 Black Ash Ct · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,756 sqft lot $130/sqft · 12% below area Est $249k · 12% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Weekends are back. The 1690 SQFT Home is nestled with a small Nook of Backyard in the Pinewood at Grand Texas. The area sits off of FM 242 in New Caney, Texas. Surrounded by Great Family Entertainment. Big Rivers Water Park, Speedsportz Race Park, & The Food Zone. 4-Bdrm & 2 Full Bathrooms w/ 2-Car Garage. 2023 Lennar Build with a Split Floorplan & Open Layout from Kitchen to Dining & Living Areas. Energy Transfer Switch for Generator Connection. The Main Hallway, Utility Room is adjacent to 3 Bedrooms and the 2nd Full Bathroom. The Primary Bedroom is set in the Back of the Home with an Upgraded Marble Bathtub & Walk-in Closet connected. Excluded: Water Softener and Reverse Osmosis Filter under the sink. APPLIANCES STAY, to include WASHER & DRYER, Security CAMERAS including the Hard Drive. The Home is set on a Dead End street with Great Walking Trails. Shopping & Restaurants are 12 Miles away. Request a Showing before the Home is Gone!

Key facts

• 4,756 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.

Recommended offer $173,608 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,309
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -8.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22361 Mountain Pine Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,739 (+3%)	0mo	$277,500	$160	86
22439 Douglas Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-1%)	1mo	$255,990	$153	85
22427 Douglas Ct	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,674 (-1%)	2mo	$263,990	$158	82
22543 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,732 (+2%)	3mo	$270,990	$156	82
22455 Douglas Ct	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,668 (-1%)	2mo	$252,990	$152	82
22471 Douglas Ct	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,668 (-1%)	3mo	$254,990	$153	80
22515 Serviceberry Branch Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	1mo	$234,990	$152	75
22446 Douglas Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	2mo	$227,990	$147	73
22454 Douglas Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	2mo	$244,990	$158	72
22632 Hackberry Leaf Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+11%)	1mo	$284,990	$152	70
22450 Douglas Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-12%)	2mo	$237,990	$160	67
17085 Pinewood Branch Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+11%)	3mo	$290,990	$155	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-57,353
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-92,305
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$638 /mo · $7,651/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $173,608

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	24d	1	0.58mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,500 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,500 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,500 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,500 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $229,000 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Your Weekends are back. The 1690 SQFT Home is nestled with a small Nook of Backyard in the Pinewood at Grand Texas. The area sits off of FM 242 in New Caney, Texas. Surrounded by Great Family Entertainment. Big Rivers Water Park, Speedsportz Race Park, & The Food Zone. 4-Bdrm & 2 Full Bathrooms w/ 2-Car Garage. 2023 Lennar Build with a Split Floorplan & Open Layout from Kitchen to Dining & Living Areas. Energy Transfer Switch for Generator Connection. The Main Hallway, Utility Room is adjacent to 3 Bedrooms and the 2nd Full Bathroom. The Primary Bedroom is set in the Back of the Home with an Upgraded Marble Bathtub & Walk-in Closet connected. Excluded: Water Softener and Reverse Osmosis Filter under the sink. APPLIANCES STAY, to include WASHER & DRYER, Security CAMERAS including the Hard Drive. The Home is set on a Dead End street with Great Walking Trails. Shopping & Restaurants are 12 Miles away. Request a Showing before the Home is Gone!

16. 2026-04-13
    price $234,999 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Your Weekends are back. The 1690 SQFT Home is nestled with a small Nook of Backyard in the Pinewood at Grand Texas. The area sits off of FM 242 in New Caney, Texas. Surrounded by Great Family Entertainment. Big Rivers Water Park, Speedsportz Race Park, & The Food Zone. 4-Bdrm & 2 Full Bathrooms w/ 2-Car Garage. 2023 Lennar Build with a Split Floorplan & Open Layout from Kitchen to Dining & Living Areas. Energy Transfer Switch for Generator Connection. The Main Hallway, Utility Room is adjacent to 3 Bedrooms and the 2nd Full Bathroom. The Primary Bedroom is set in the Back of the Home with an Upgraded Marble Bathtub & Walk-in Closet connected. Excluded: Water Softener and Reverse Osmosis Filter under the sink. APPLIANCES STAY, to include WASHER & DRYER, Security CAMERAS including the Hard Drive. The Home is set on a Dead End street with Great Walking Trails. Shopping & Restaurants are 12 Miles away. Request a Showing before the Home is Gone!

17. 2026-01-28
    price $240,000 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Your Weekends are back. The 1690 SQFT Home is nestled with a small Nook of Backyard in the Pinewood at Grand Texas. The area sits off of FM 242 in New Caney, Texas. Surrounded by Great Family Entertainment. Big Rivers Water Park, Speedsportz Race Park, & The Food Zone. 4-Bdrm & 2 Full Bathrooms w/ 2-Car Garage. 2023 Lennar Build with a Split Floorplan & Open Layout from Kitchen to Dining & Living Areas. Energy Transfer Switch for Generator Connection. The Main Hallway, Utility Room is adjacent to 3 Bedrooms and the 2nd Full Bathroom. The Primary Bedroom is set in the Back of the Home with an Upgraded Marble Bathtub & Walk-in Closet connected. Excluded: Water Softener and Reverse Osmosis Filter under the sink. APPLIANCES STAY, to include WASHER & DRYER, Security CAMERAS including the Hard Drive. The Home is set on a Dead End street with Great Walking Trails. Shopping & Restaurants are 12 Miles away. Request a Showing before the Home is Gone!

18. 2026-01-15
    listed $250,000 Active 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Your Weekends are back. The 1690 SQFT Home is nestled with a small Nook of Backyard in the Pinewood at Grand Texas. The area sits off of FM 242 in New Caney, Texas. Surrounded by Great Family Entertainment. Big Rivers Water Park, Speedsportz Race Park, & The Food Zone. 4-Bdrm & 2 Full Bathrooms w/ 2-Car Garage. 2023 Lennar Build with a Split Floorplan & Open Layout from Kitchen to Dining & Living Areas. Energy Transfer Switch for Generator Connection. The Main Hallway, Utility Room is adjacent to 3 Bedrooms and the 2nd Full Bathroom. The Primary Bedroom is set in the Back of the Home with an Upgraded Marble Bathtub & Walk-in Closet connected. Excluded: Water Softener and Reverse Osmosis Filter under the sink. APPLIANCES STAY, to include WASHER & DRYER, Security CAMERAS including the Hard Drive. The Home is set on a Dead End street with Great Walking Trails. Shopping & Restaurants are 12 Miles away. Request a Showing before the Home is Gone!

19. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus Sold 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-B by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

20. 2023-10-20
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-B by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

21. 2023-10-17
    price $210,000 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-B by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

22. 2023-10-04
    price $215,000 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-B by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

23. 2023-10-03
    listed $245,990 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-B by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,651 · $638/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,651 · $638/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$7,651
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$6,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Woodbranch, TX, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It offers a good investment opportunity with minor updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior (every 3-5 years) — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves the home's visual appeal and can attract more buyers/renters.
• Resale Replace or upgrade appliances (every 10-15 years) — Modern appliances can increase the home's market value.
• Resale Replace or upgrade flooring (every 10-15 years) — New flooring can significantly boost the home's curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace or upgrade windows (every 15-20 years) — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's market value.
• Resale Replace or upgrade HVAC system (every 15-20 years) — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value.
• Rental Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can attract more renters and increase rental rates.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior (every 3-5 years) — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves the home's visual appeal and can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Replace or upgrade appliances (every 10-15 years) — Modern appliances can increase the home's market value. ↑
• Resale Replace or upgrade flooring (every 10-15 years) — New flooring can significantly boost the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace or upgrade windows (every 15-20 years) — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's market value. ↑
• Resale Replace or upgrade HVAC system (every 15-20 years) — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can attract more renters and increase rental rates. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $234,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-03 Listed $245,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,651 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.