373 Avalon Way · Flowood, MS 39047

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1997 0.25 ac lot $133/sqft · 13% below area Est $288k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a solid layout with a 2 car garage and luxury vinyl flooring already in place. The home is in overall good condition but does need foundation work, making it ideal for an investor or a buyer looking to renovate and build equity quickly. With the right repairs, this property has strong potential for resale or long-term hold. The size, layout, and location make it a great candidate for a value-add project. Whether you are looking for your next investment or a home you can improve to your own taste, this is a chance to purchase below market value and create instant equity.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; fees include grounds maintenance and pool service

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; garage faces front; paved driveway; Total 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in public records (year built source: public records)
• Exterior features: Back yard with wood privacy fencing; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Double-pane windows; Rain gutters
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Bluff Elementary (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C-, #58 of 375 statewide, top 15%, 577 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,034 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,872
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -13.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
371 Avalon Way	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,927 (+2%)	1mo	$249,900	$130	95
354 Kings Ridge Cir	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,766 (-6%)	4mo	$280,000	$159	70
159 Regatta Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (-9%)	3mo	$289,900	$169	66
311 Camber Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-14%)	2mo	$278,500	$171	62
301 Spring Hill Pt	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,789 (-5%)	1mo	$300,000	$168	60
228 Huntington Holw	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (+8%)	2mo	$345,000	$170	55
813 Terrapin Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,935 (+3%)	2mo	$299,900	$155	55
503 Spring Hill Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (-9%)	4mo	$269,000	$157	53
204 Riverbirch Cv	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-10%)	3mo	$249,000	$146	52
126 Plum Tree Rd	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,935 (+3%)	3mo	$259,900	$134	52
243 E Pinebrook Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-10%)	4mo	$279,900	$166	51
148 W Pinebrook Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-15%)	0mo	$289,900	$181	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,434
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $13,584
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,905

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $438	+0% $368	+5% $297	+10% $226
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $274	+0% $368	+5% $461	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $494	-0.5pp $431	base $368	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Avalon Way Brandon, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1287	$2,052	$1.59	15d	6	0.10mi
538 Brighton Cir Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	2042	$2,395	$1.17	15d	1	0.30mi
301 Jasmine Ct Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,200	$1.22	45d	1	0.68mi
154 Plum Tree Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,931	$1.50	25d	1	0.70mi
199 Dogwood Cir Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	46d	1	0.92mi
111 Lakeshore Dr Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,218	$2.28	15d	8	0.92mi
218 Shenandoah Rd N Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,006	$1.23	45d	1	1.09mi
133 Cumberland Rd Brandon, MS	4.0	3.0	1846	$2,225	$1.21	25d	1	1.29mi
413 Shenandoah Rd N Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1715	$2,056	$1.20	15d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $250,000 Active 617-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,975 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$898/yr (+$75/mo · 83.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $290
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $4,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.